The year 2025 is expected to be the second or third hottest year in human history, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Observatory. Data released this Tuesday (9) indicates that the average global air temperature from January to November was 1.48°C higher than in the pre-industrial era, equivalent to 2023, which was the second warmest year so far – behind only 2024.
Scientists say the world experienced the third warmest November in historical record, just behind 2023 and 2024. On average, the thermometer was 1.54°C above the period before industrialization (1850 to 1900), considered a parameter of the climate before the large-scale emission of greenhouse gases.
Although the final temperature data for the year depends on what happens in December, it is likely that the 2023 to 2025 average will exceed 1.5°C. If confirmed, it will be the first time that the safest limit on global warming has been exceeded during observations over three years.
“These steps are not abstract, they reflect the accelerating pace of climate change, and the only way to mitigate future rising temperatures is to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” said Samantha Burgess, head of climate at Copernicus.
The year 2024 recorded a record global warming of 1.6°C and was the first to exceed the priority objective of the Paris Agreement. Scientists say it is essential to keep thermometers below 1.5°C to prevent rising sea levels, the disappearance of island countries and the death of coral reefs.
The international treaty will celebrate its tenth anniversary next Friday (12), amid a steady increase in carbon dioxide emissions, which are expected to reach a new peak this year.
Science is already able to confirm that the 1.5°C objective will not be achieved in the years to come. Countries meeting at COP30, the United Nations climate change conference held in Belém (PA), committed to limiting the duration and extent of exceeding the safest level.
The European observatory report highlights that northern Canada, the Arctic Ocean and Antarctica recorded sharp increases in thermometers in November, while Asia faced mixed conditions. In contrast, northeastern Russia experienced above-average cold.
Copernicus points out that the northern hemisphere experienced the third warmest autumn on record, with 0.67°C above the 1991-2020 average – the September-November temperature is only second behind the same periods in 2023 and 2024.
Europe warmed more than the rest of the hemisphere, 1.06°C above 1990 to 2020 measurements for the season, and had the fourth warmest autumn in the historical record.
The global average ocean temperature was 20.42°C in November, the fourth highest value for the month. The Norwegian Sea warmed much more than normal, reaching record levels, as did the Coral Sea off the east coast of Australia. On the other hand, the natural phenomenon La Niña, cooling the waters of the Pacific, helped to contain the thermometers.
Southern Brazil has been hit by an unusual drought, according to Copernicus. The same thing happened in northern Mexico, the southern United States, and much of western and central Asia.
The extent of the Arctic ice sheet in November was 12% below average, making it the second smallest measurement of the month. In Antarctica, glacier sizes were 7% smaller than average, the fourth lowest rating for the period.
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