Tarcísio de Freitas, governor of São Paulo, could not continue to remain silent after Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, authorized by his father, presented himself as a candidate for President of the Republic in 2026. There were 72 hours of uncomfortable silence for the one who always said that he would respect Bolsonaro’s decision, whatever it was.
Tarcísio spoke last night at an event in the ABC region of São Paulo. And weighing his words, he reaffirmed his loyalty to Bolsonaro and declared that Flávio would count on his support. However, he took the opportunity to point out that the right could have other candidates for the presidency, citing Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema and Ratinho Jr.
“I always said that I would be loyal to Bolsonaro, that I am grateful to Bolsonaro, I have this loyalty and it is non-negotiable,” he explained. Asked about the recent Datafolha survey, which shows Flávio is 15 percentage points behind Lula, Tarcísio said: “We will evaluate this over time. We have time to mature.”
Tarcísio’s time ends in mid-March. To run for president, if that were the case, he would have to resign from the São Paulo government in the first days of April, leaving the house in order and the political joints ready to elect his successor. Time is therefore against him.
Furthermore, it is not enough that Flávio’s candidacy does not grow or wither. The master of Bolsonaro’s creations is Bolsonaro and his family. With Flávio stagnant or withering, the clan may prefer to move forward so as not to lose relevance or to not cede its votes to those it considers unreliable.
Lula acted roughly like this in 2018, during his arrest in Curitiba. He insisted on his candidacy until the end of August, only giving it up about a month before the first round of elections. It turns out that Lula was leading all the polls until then. And thanks to his votes, he placed Fernando Haddad in the second round.
The fragmentation of the right will open the way to a fourth term for Lula. The only person who could avoid it would be Tarcísio. For now, he’s pretty much out of the game. But the fragmentation could also open the way for Flávio to enter the second round. This is what the Bolsonaro family is betting on to stay in the spotlight.
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