Brazil has a date with its future in 2026. Seen from the outside, the country is today an object of desire, for its way of life, its culture and its environment. But from the inside, he still seems to be looking for a way out of the political chaos.
Brazilian cinema, the current spearhead of national culture, continues to gain worldwide recognition. The Secret Agent was nominated for a Golden Globe in the categories of Best Drama and Best Non-English Film. And the Golden Globes are considered a sort of prelude to the Oscars.
British singer Dua Lipa had fun at FlaxFlu, at the Maracanã. American Bruno Mars released a funk song in Portuguese, which reached 134 million listeners. Brazilian colors are prevalent on designer clothing in various parts of the world.
And even though the COP in Belém did not see a major international agreement to combat the climate crisis, Brazil did its part as host. He also initiated plans for a large fund to keep the world’s rainforests standing.
Rio de Janeiro hosted the G20 and Brics summits, both at the Museum of Modern Art. And it has broken records for foreign tourist visits, although it is far from its potential – largely because of fragile public security.
In a war-weary world, Brazil seems to be the star. Far-right patriots still like to fly American flags. But Brazilian colors seem more attractive in times of aggression in Washington.
The country has many opportunities to exercise global leadership in energy transition, bioeconomy and low-carbon agriculture. It all depends on a vast national project.
Meanwhile, the country is lost in institutional conflicts and struggles to define its objectives. Even the demolition of environmental protection laws and the protection of indigenous rights are part of the strange agreements made by Parliament with the other two powers.
The definition of the political scenario for 2026 must still go through this dense fog. On the right, senator Flávio Bolsonaro presents himself as a pre-candidate for the presidency and then announces that his withdrawal has a price: amnesty for his father, Jair, detained in a cell in Brasilia.
The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, is the big bet of Faria Lima and the majority of those who want to see the left away from power. In four months, he will have to clarify whether he accepts the adventure.
If he accepts, he will have to explain what type of relationship he intends to maintain with the Bolsonaro family and what political options he would adopt in a possible mandate. So far, what they are asking of him is an austere government, which stops the growth of public debt.
This is in fact the Achilles heel of the third government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The current government has not yet managed to reproduce the primary surpluses that Lula himself sought during his first term at the Palácio do Planalto.
The other figures, however, challenge the pessimists. Inflation remains moderate and unemployment is low. Growth is not Brastemp, but it includes new features like low-carbon neo-industrialization.
Just as the right must indicate its priorities beyond an amnesty for Bolsonaro and a reduction in public spending, the left must indicate how to keep the pace of the economy without lighting the fuse of public debt.
Balance is one of the ingredients of a new challenge for the future. If the current administration still needs a roadmap to balance public accounts, those who bet on the reissue of Bolsonarism must clarify whether they intend to repeat the captain’s bet.
You only need to analyze the way Brazil is perceived today by the rest of the world to see its attractions: a contagious culture, defense of the environment and a foreign policy that does not seek confrontation.
Under the previous government, it should be remembered, culture had become a small appendage of the Ministry of Tourism. The Minister of the Environment wanted to “let the herd pass” and destroy environmental legislation. And the Prime Minister of Foreign Affairs boasted that Brazil had assumed the status of a global pariah.
The country will have the opportunity, in 2026, to ride a favorable wave and capitalize on its great potential. And, who knows, maybe even win a World Cup again.
Marcos Magalhães. Journalist specializing in global issues, with a master’s degree in international relations from the University of Southampton (England), presented the program Cidadania Mundo on TV Senado. He began his career in 1982, as a reporter for the magazine Veja for the Amazon region. In Brasilia, from 1985 he worked in the branches of Jornal do Brasil, IstoÉ, Gazeta Mercantil, Manchete and Estado de S. Paulo, before joining the Department of Social Communication of the Senate, where he remained until the end of 2018.
About The Author
