The Super Wednesday of interest, November inflation and Postal staff expenses will be the theme this Thursday (11) of the C-Level Call, a weekly video call on the economy and politics promoted by Leaf.
The show will be broadcast on YouTube at 5 p.m. Journalists Idiana Tomazelli and Nathalia Garcia are present. You can register and submit questions by clicking on this link.
SUPER INTEREST WEDNESDAY
The Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) of the Central Bank and the Fed (Federal Reserve), the monetary authority of the United States, publish Brazilian and North American interest rates this week. This date is commonly known as Super Wednesday.
In Brazil, the board of directors meets on Tuesday (9) and Wednesday (10), when the decision is announced. The Selic, the base interest rate, is 15% per year. Economists consulted by Leaf believe that the level should remain the same, despite the weak performance of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in the third quarter.
The biggest debate is whether the monetary authority will begin the cycle of budget cuts in January or March 2026, an election year. The government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) is pushing for BC to cut interest rates, which is likely to spark further criticism if the unanimous forecast is confirmed.
In the United States, members of the Fed’s monetary policy committee (FOMC) have “very divergent opinions” regarding a third cut in American interest rates.
The information is included in the minutes of the October meeting. The Fed then announced a reduction of 0.25 percentage points in the interest rate, to bring it between 3.75% and 4% per year. US President Donald Trump is also calling for a deeper reduction. The Republican wants the level at 1.5%.
NOVEMBER INFLATION
The IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) publishes on Wednesday (10) inflation measured by the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index) for November.
In October, the rate was the lowest for the month since 1998, slowing to 0.09%. Inflation during this period was dampened by the electricity relief. Over a 12-month period, the IPCA reached 4.68% until October, the lowest recorded until January this year (4.56%).
The Focus Bulletin published on Monday (8) predicts that Brazil will end 2025 with inflation at 4.46%, within the target with a limit of up to 4.5% pursued by the Central Bank.
THE Leaf showed on Tuesday (9) that Correios’ personnel costs consume almost two-thirds of the company’s current expenses and are expected to reach 15.1 billion reais in 2025. This figure is inflated by more generous benefits than those guaranteed by the CLT (Consolidation of Labor Laws), such as higher vacation bonuses and a tripling of hours on weekends and holidays.
This is one of the main challenges of the restructuring plan aimed at dealing with the financial crisis of the public company. Correios’ command intends to re-discuss certain clauses, but must face resistance from the unions.
Experts believe that the most favorable agreement for Correios employees does not constitute an irregularity, but could place the company at a competitive disadvantage compared to its private competitors.
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