A final in mid-December. This is how he faces the real Madrid this Wednesday the visit of Manchester City (9 p.m.). A complicated game in the worst moments. Or at best, according to those who are still waiting for a reaction from the team Xabi Alonso.
The spotlight is on the benches, where the Tolosarra player is literally risking his future against Pep Guardiola, one of the coaches who marked his understanding of football during his time as a footballer in the Bayern Munich.
The situation of the Basque coach borders on the unbearable. After the humiliating 0-2 defeat against Celtic of Vigo Last Sunday, Real Madrid suffered four losses in the last five days. The League, losing nine of the last 18 possible points.
The contrast is devastating: only six weeks ago, after winning the Clásico, the Whites were at the top of the table with a five-point lead over the Whites. Barcelona; They are now four points behind the Blaugranas and with the Villarreal is hiding just one point from second position.
From the board of directors’ side, the message was clear although veiled: the commitment to Xabi Alonso continues, but a heavy defeat against Manchester City could precipitate a dramatic outcome. The club held a crisis meeting at dawn after the fiasco against Celta, analyzing not only the result but also the direction of a season that inexplicably went wrong.
This is the match ball definitive for the Tolosarra coach, who must demonstrate his ability to react in front of one of the most brilliant technicians in the history of football.
A defense in ruins and Mbappé’s doubt
The outlook for Xabi Alonso couldn’t be more complicated. Real Madrid faces the duel with an infirmary full of defenders which leaves the coach practically without options in rearguard. Eder Militao He suffered a torn biceps femoris that will keep him out for four months.
Added to this decline are those of Dani Carvajal, Trent Alexander-Arnold -with two months of absence-, David Alaba And Ferland Mendy. Eduardo Camavinga He will also not be available following the worsening of his sprained ankle, while Dean Huijsen He continues without recovering from his muscular discomfort.
Rondo at Real Madrid training this Tuesday
EFE
As if that wasn’t enough, Kylian Mbappé This is a serious doubt for the meeting. The French striker, the team’s top scorer with 25 of Real Madrid’s 44 goals this season, did not train with the group on Tuesday due to muscle discomfort in his left leg.
Although at first it seemed he was only suffering a fracture to the ring finger of his left hand, the muscle discomfort he had been feeling for weeks worsened after the Celta match, increasing the risk of a more serious injury.
The data reflects the capital importance of Mbappé in the offensive scheme. He scored 25 goals with a Expected objectives (xG) of 19.9 on 106 shots, which translates to 0.19 xG per shot and 0.24 goals per shot.
His heat map shows a constant presence in the rival zone, with exceptional percentiles in goals (97), shots (94) and touches in the box (92). His absence would force Alonso to completely reconfigure his offensive proposition.
When the system collapses
The debacle against Celta exposed the deepest flaws in Xabi Alonso’s system. The heat map showed Real Madrid completely out of position, with hot spots concentrated in sterile positions and a clear inability to generate any real danger.
The graph of passes in the rival field of Valverde, Guler And Bellingham This showed the lack of connection between the lines and the lack of fluidity in the movement of the ball.
The lines of successful passes (in green) and missed passes (in red) of these three players reflect a tactically disconnected team. Bellingham, without sufficient effort, barely manages to exert his influence in creative fields. Valverde was overwhelmed in his attempt to balance defensive and offensive tasks, while Güler lacked the necessary support.
Alonso tried several tactical variations. It all started with a system that prioritized Tchouaméni As a libero, he then set up a three-defender line with big wingers like Trent to provide depth.
However, the cascade of injuries forced the coach to constantly improvise, generating positional disorders and a loss of automation. The locker room shows signs of division around his figure.
Guardiola and his renewed City
In front, Pep Guardiola arrives with Manchester City which maintains a solid performance in First League, occupying second position with 31 points, only two below the Arsenal. The team evolved tactically, sacrificing some of its obsession with possession in favor of a more vertical play towards the opponent’s goal.
Erling Haaland continues to pose a deadly threat. The Norwegian has scored 15 goals in 27 premiership games this season, with 22 goals in all competitions. He scores a goal every 81 minutes and takes 4.14 shots per 90 minutes.
His privileged physical abilities make him the ideal player to exploit Real Madrid’s defensive weaknesses.
Pep Guardiola and Haaland, after a match at Manchester City
Reuters
But Haaland is not the only threat. Rayan Cherki, the French winger has since signed Lyon, has become more important in Guardiola’s project. With just 398 minutes played in the Premier League, he has five assists.
His latest genius, an assist from Rabona against Sunderland, left Guardiola himself speechless, who said: “I have never seen Messi play and cross like he did”.
Jeremy Doku He brings speed and overflow on the wings. In the center of the field, Nico González He established himself as the team’s metronome after the difficulties encountered in replacing Rodri. The Spaniard brings fluidity in traffic, plays quickly and with few touches, winning duels with positional rigor.
Reaction against revenge
Tactically, the match promises to be a feast. Guardiola maintains his possession philosophy – they average 61% in the Champions League – with adjustments favoring verticality. His 4-3-3 with Nico González as a pivot, it gives balance, while the movements of Bernard Silva And Phil Foden They generate constant problems.
Xabi Alonso will have to decide whether he maintains the three centre-back system with high wingers that worked for him against the Athletic, or return to a more conventional scheme which allows greater solidity against City’s offensive potential.
The lack of natural full-backs complicates any approach, with players like Tchouaméni or Valverde likely having to sacrifice themselves defensively.
The statistics suggest a high intensity match. Nine of the last ten direct confrontations between the two teams in the Champions League have ended in a goal for both teams. Real Madrid score an average of 2.4 goals per game in this Champions League, while City score two per game.
For Guardiola, it is the opportunity to take revenge after the eliminations suffered against Madrid during the last two Champions League seasons. He also allowed himself an ironic comment on Xabi’s situation: “Let him piss with his. And since he doesn’t piss in cologne, it will be fine for him.”
For Alonso, this is a litmus test. The coach tried to appear calm, saying he felt the club’s support, even if the reality of the results said otherwise. The defeat against Celta revealed tactical problems and worrying mental fragility in a team that finished with nine players on the pitch.
A Wednesday that can change everything
Real Madrid started the day fifth in the Champions League with twelve points, while Manchester City was in ninth position with ten points. For both, the match is crucial to ensure their direct qualification for the round of 16.
But in the case of Real Madrid, the stakes are much higher. This is Xabi Alonso’s future as coach of the club. This is the credibility of a project that seemed solid a few weeks ago. It’s the confidence of a divided locker room that needs a victory to believe in it again.
This Wednesday at 9:00 p.m., the Santiago Bernabéu You will witness a tactical battle between master and disciple. Guardiola, with a renewed team hungry for revenge. Alonso, with the obligation to find solutions with a reduced workforce.
Graphical analysis shows Madrid’s shortcomings and City’s inspiration. In the end, everything will depend on who can impose their idea on the ground when everything seems to indicate that the die is cast.
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