The Reduction of withholding tax on agricultural exports adds another grain of sand to exchange peace. On the market they estimate that the measure is a Cut by a few points (for soybeans it will decrease from 26% to 24%)will have a very moderate impact on the Currency offer and consequently on the Exchange ratebut it adds to the factors that predict exchange rate calm in the coming weeks.
Actually it is future dollar contracts recorded a further general decline following the announcement of the measure. The Daily losses extended to 0.5% for those that expire from the middle of next year, months in which the exchange rate is negotiated $1,631 and $1,897. They will do so by the end of this year $1,450just above the official exchange rate in the wholesale segment ($1,442).
The market expects the exchange rate “summer” to last at least through December: The seasonal increase in demand for pesos, the extraordinary dollar liquidations by companies and provinces that have issued debt securities in foreign currency, and the income from the good agricultural harvest, which promises very good figures this time, will work in their favor.
From the second half of January Seasonality should decrease in the Demand for pesos and potentially increase demand for foreign exchange. At least that’s the usual behavior every year. However, in the market they claim that this time the increase in dollar demand could be partially offset by the extraordinary supply from companies and provinces, in an environment where investor optimism remains firm.
Buying dollars is unattractive to the market
Clave Bursátil analysts suggest not buying dollars at this time. That’s what they claim “The exchange rate dynamics in December are clearly pessimistic”driven by a combination of seasonal and structural factors that favor the appreciation of the peso. One of them, that Fine harvest (wheat), which will come in record numbers (expected 25.5 million tons, an increase of 37% compared to last year) and will ensure a good flow of foreign exchange in the foreign exchange market.
Furthermore, they emphasize that Private sector “is still hyperdollarized” After strong demand before the election, some could be disarmed due to the need for local currency liquidity. At the same time, in December seasonal peak demand for pesos due to bonus payments and year-end consumptionwhich speaks for a calm exchange rate.
“To this comes an important announcement from the government: the permanent reduction in retentions for soybeans from 26% to 24% (and for by-products to 22.5%), which comes into force this Tuesday, a measure that responds to the agricultural sector’s call for greater competitiveness. The measure, together with the optimal water reserve in the soils in the core zone (thanks to abundant but controlled rainfall without major floods), heralds an outstanding campaign in the second quarter 2026”they stand out.
That’s why he stays there “Buying dollars at current prices is not attractive”: The upward margin is small, only for the wholesale official 5% of the band cap and a context that does not favor a sustained increase in the exchange rate. However, they clarify that moderate exchange rate pressures could emerge from the second half of January, when the peso’s seasonality weakens, until mid-March, when the big harvest arrives, although “there is nothing worrying that would change the overall outlook.”
Economist Gustavo Ber adds that while it is true that from mid-January the peso’s seasonality usually decreases and pressure on the exchange rate becomes active again, “To the extent that greater demand is accompanied by greater supply, this should not lead to more than a gradual realignment of price if positive expectations in the financial market are maintained.”.
Moderate impact but helps the dollar
Santiago López Alfaro, Director of Securities Patents, reiterates the reduction of withholding tax “Something helps” to increase exchange rate stability, but emphasizes that this scenario should not be supported so much by the liquidations of exportersbut due to an increase in dollar inflows for foreign direct investment and flows of financial operations, such as corporate and provincial bond issuances, triggered in recent weeks.
“In principle, the measure would have a very strong impact neither on local prices nor on foreign exchange earnings. Reducing export tariffs shifts the theoretical solvency upwards: about.” $8 for soybeans, $4 for wheat, $4 for sunflowers and $2 for corn and sorghum“explains analyst Mariela Brandolin in an interview with iProfessional.
However, according to Brandolin, “it is unlikely that there will be an additional increase in sales as most buyers were already paying values above theoretical capacity (except for wheat).” Even for soybeans, which are expected to be the most favored, “it is difficult to expect a significant change as the market has already been very active in previous months.”
Andrés Reschini, director of F2 Soluciones Financieras, adds that the measure can be beneficial short-term increased currency liquidationbut it denies that it has a major impact on the exchange rate. Especially considering that the government needs to buy foreign exchange to bolster its reserves and is estimated to be aiming for stability rather than a much stronger peso.
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