The economists of Faria Lima believe that even the appointment of Paulo Guedes to lead the economic plan of the pre-presidential campaign of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) would not give political viability to the senator’s intention to run for President of the Republic in 2026.
The day Flávio Bolsonaro announced that he had been chosen by his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), to run in the upcoming presidential elections, the stock market fell more than 4% and the dollar soared.
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The problem with Flávio, for the financial market, is not programmatic. Therefore, even if the clear presentation of an economic program favorable to the wishes of Faria Lima and the announcement of a name that supports this platform, like Guedes, would not be enough to dispel the distrust of the candidacy of Son 01.
“He may have better intentions, but if he doesn’t win, there’s no point. So the market will watch the viability of the candidacy. What’s at stake now is not this question of his program, who will be with him. It’s the second problem,” said the chief economist of an investment manager, in a private conversation with the Metropolises.
Flávio’s problem is linked to the strong rejection that Bolsonaro’s name arouses from a large part of the electorate. Most financial market economists believe that this reduces the chances of victory of the former president’s first son against Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the second round.
The point of view of economists heard by the Metropolises is that, with a PT government, there is no chance of changing fiscal policy, which favors increasing income to allow an increase in public spending, considered structural in Lula’s economic management.
Neither Lula nor Bolsonaro
In the opinion of economists who spoke with the Metropolisesthe reforms deemed important by the financial market depend on political stability which would not be found either in the re-election of Lula, nor in the case of the election of Flávio Bolsonaro.
In the case of the reappointment of the PT member, economists are betting on a Congress in even greater conflict with the Executive, since one of the priorities of Bolsonarism is the senatorial elections and, in the Chamber of Deputies, the government is already facing problems of domination by the opposition.
If Flávio managed to overcome the barrier of rejection and was elected in 2026, it is estimated that he would use much of his political capital to free former President Jair Bolsonaro. This attitude could compromise greater rigidity of budgetary rules and a reduction in spending, unpopular measures.
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