IBGE data published on Wednesday (10) reaffirm the aging trend of the Brazilian population, which is putting pressure on social security and the health system. In this sense, it is a warning for governments that must implement reforms in favor of the rational use of public money and the control of expenditure, which has increased unsustainably in recent years.
The number of deaths in the country has been increasing slowly since 2004 – the start of the series presented by the IBGE – and jumped during the pandemic, from 1.3 million in 2019 to 1.8 million in 2021. After the peak of the health crisis, this number fell to 1.5 million in 2022 and to 1.4 million the following year, but rose again in 2024, returning to the level of two years previously.
The more marked the aging, the more the number of deaths increases. Of last year’s total, 90.9% were due to natural causes (internal processes of the body) and 6.9% were due to external causes (homicides, suicides and accidents).
The state with the highest rate of external cases is Amapá (13.9%), which, according to the Brazilian Public Security Forum, was the leader in intentional violent deaths in 2024, with 45.1 per 100,000 inhabitants, compared to 20.8 per 100,000 inhabitants in the national average.
The aging process is also established through a reduction in births. In 2024, Brazil recorded the sixth consecutive decline, with 2.37 million, a decline of 5.8% from 2023, the largest year-over-year percentage reduction since 2004.
The phenomenon, which is global, has causes such as the increase in the cost of living, effective control of reproduction, a precarious public daycare network and the postponement of motherhood by women who begin to prioritize their professional career, avoiding double work schedules in the domestic environment.
With more elderly people and a reduced economically active population, the bill to support social security and health does not close, especially with the fiscal disarray, more serious at the federal level.
If a large part of budgets is limited by compulsory expenditure (Social Security, civil servants, social benefits), there remains little room for investment in sectors such as SUS, infrastructure and education.
Brazil did not take advantage of its demographic bonus period to develop its economy and thus prepare for the aging of its population. Without having become rich, the country will have to choose priorities to be able to meet new expenses without compromising the fight against social inequalities or the solvency of the State, which is already threatened today.
editorials@grupofolha.com.br
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