In one 2025 Characterized by the expectation of growth in the agricultural sector, an activity managed to stand out on its own strength and was considered consolidated big winner of the year: the meat chain. For specialists, what happened was not a coincidence, but the result of a scenario on which they finally agreed the “3Ps”: Prices, weed and politics. With record prices, favorable weather, clear political signals and solid international demand, 2025 was a year for livestock Centrality regained in Argentine agriculture.
That’s how he summed it up THE NATION Diego PontiLivestock Analyst AZ Group, Who defined that? “The year 2025 was undoubtedly a very good year for the livestock industry.” As he explained, this extraordinary achievement was based on three pillars: “Prices on one side, weed on the other side and politics on the other side.” The latter was characterized by “the consolidation of the current rules of the game based on the election results of last October”, an advance he saw as “fundamental” because one of the great uncertainties was to think about the evolution of livestock farming beyond what was happening in the macroeconomics. The government of Javier Milei, Immediately after taking office, he removed all obstacles to exports.
Regarding sectoral indicators, Ponti pointed out that “work and production were similar to last year.” The most striking data was a decline in export volumes, which he described as “the legacy of an Argentina in 2024 that was expensive, had lost competitiveness and international prices were not attractive.”
Meanwhile, there was an improvement in terms of value. “From April last year, the international scenario changed with rising prices and here Argentina began to reposition itself again in the international market.” he explained. This improvement led to a “20 to 30% increase in beef prices in several destination countries, such as the European Union, Israel and China,” allowing for some recovery, although not to reach 2024 levels.
According to the Argentine Beef Promotion Institute (Ipcva), as of last October, the country had sold 582,512,364 tons of product weight worldwide, 8.1% less compared to the same period in 2024. In value terms, it was now sold for $3,104,283,611, 26.5% more, due to better prices.
Despite the good business climate, “no immediate bonding process can be seen yet,” warned the consultant. The explanation, he said, was that “from a macroeconomic perspective, the producer has still endured a year of great uncertainty.” He cited exchange rate volatility, easing stock prices and the political noise of elections as factors that had “postponed decisions in the livestock sector.”
Nevertheless, he emphasized that the producers “They took profits and benefited from good prices” and they made targeted investments, but without a general leap in scale or in the modernization of the company.
If there was one deciding factor in 2025, it was prices. “There it is the strong card of 2025”, Ponti said. According to him, the numbers are overwhelming: “The price of a calf this December is 80% higher than the same period last year; the raised calf is 89% higher, the beef is 100% higher with inflation of 30-31%.” Even measured in dollars, the values were unprecedented: “The price of a calf is 114% higher than the average for the last five Decembers, an ox is 116% higher.”
In this regard, the analyst stated categorically: “We are at historic record levels and have no price references at these levels.” Despite these exceptional numbers, Ponti made it clear that the business results were not exceptional for everyone. For systems on leased fields, for example, the rent is linked to the kilo-steel and the kilo-steel and the kilo-calf run more or less hand in hand, which narrows the margins.
He also mentioned that breeding on natural fields with low production also does not achieve excellent profitability. The best numbers were seen in intensive models: “The best margins were achieved by the models that managed to intensify and produce more kilos per hectare.”
Another important point was that Meat-input relationship. According to Ponti, today it takes 40% fewer kilos of oxen to buy a ton of corn compared to the last five years. This was also reflected in the cost of pastures, green spaces and even land: “Many people have taken advantage of this opportunity to sell properties and buy land.”
Although there were areas affected by excess water, particularly in the central-west of Buenos Aires, Ponti emphasized that “the condition of the fields was generally very good.” The spring was also good and he expects that “next year there will definitely be weanings with slightly heavier calves or good weights.”
For next year, he described a challenging but optimistic scenario: “Inputs will continue to be very competitive to add many kilos of meat, although structural costs will closely match prices.” He also expected a lower supply: “In 2026 there will probably be fewer slaughters and less meat production.”
He The international market is also bullish. “The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released forecasts for 2026 and they are clearly optimistic,” he noted, noting that several leading countries will reduce their exports.
With this in mind, the livestock advisor Victor Tonelli agreed on the exceptional character of the cycle. “2025 will be one of those years to remember, a year when the planets finally aligned,” he explained.
He stressed that the government has decided to end all restrictions, bans, restrictions and quotas that hindered the activity. In addition, world prices have increased “21 months in a row” because demand is growing faster than supply.
Looking to the future, he predicted a cycle of “Stock recovery” and less supply in 2026 and 2027, which will put further pressure on values. “If 2025 seemed good to you, prepare for 2026 and 2027, which will be as good or better,” he said. His advice to the producer was: “It’s a year to hang in a box and remember. That’s my recommendation.” Take advantage of these moments when all types of livestock are worth a lot to make the investments you need in grass, feed and technology, which clearly shows that the investment will be paid back in a very short time.”
In this scenario, which is riddled with a constant lack of available finance, the export industry faces short-term challenges. For Miguel JairalaConsultant to the ABC Meat Exporters Consortium, what stood out the most was lack of raw materials, especially at the end of the year.
Although the final closure is still pending, the specialist predicts: “We will be between 9 and 10% below the 2024 level in terms of volume and significantly higher by around 25% in terms of value,” driven by the international price improvement. The decline is largely due to China, “the market that accounts for 70% of exports.”
The adviser described a panorama altered by election uncertainty and decisions that ultimately made commodities even more expensive. “There was a lot of uncertainty about the value of the exchange rate and in the end nothing happened with the exchange rate and yet the values of the estate were confirmed,” he said. This distortion was accompanied by a shortage of supply and an important piece of information: “Today there is no international trading company that pays the cost of raw materials, which means everything is done at a loss.”
Against this background, many plants adapted their operating procedures. “A large proportion of companies have already planned vacations and work breaks Because Production at the same level with negative profitability only leads to a bigger problem, namely the bankruptcy of the company. The industry is facing a very, very complicated summer,” he concluded.
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