Economists say the increase in services leads to a revision in third-quarter GDP forecasts

However, economists stress that the result of the monthly services survey (PMS), released on Wednesday morning by IBGE, should not affect the start of the cycle of interest cuts by the central bank, scheduled for the beginning of next year.

– This better-than-expected result somewhat undermines the optimism generated by yesterday’s IPCA report regarding lower interest rates at the beginning of 2026. However, it is necessary to remember that activity data only influence monetary policy to the extent that they influence inflation – and recent numbers have been positive, including in the services group. Moreover, we are talking about data from September, while we already have information on inflation from October. In the end, the PMS result does not help, but also does not hinder the beginning of the decline in interest rates in 2026 – Lille estimates.

According to him, the better-than-expected performance at PMS partly reflects the impact of Consumer Week, which was held in September. He says the trend is for the number to be moderate in October.

The PMS index came in higher than expected due to the Consumer Week, which boosted the “Transportation, Storage and Mail” group with an increase of 1.2%. Further evidence of this impact was the 7.2% increase in “other services provided to families,” equivalent to services in the IPCA. However, when looking at the cumulative performance for 2025, we note that the 2.8% increase through September has little to do with IPCA services, as it is concentrated in “IT Services” which rose by 12.5% ​​- a move linked to the digitalization of the economy and not very sensitive to monetary policy. A moderation is expected in the coming months, although there will still be promotions in October and November, explains the economist at G5 Partners.

Ariane Benedetto confirms that the latest data do indicate an important moderation, especially in activities targeting families. He points out that this cooling is consistent with the delayed effects of monetary policy – ​​the cumulative effect of higher interest rates eventually begins to reflect more clearly.

— When we look at the composition, we see that services for families and the most credit-sensitive sectors are already showing signs of slowing down, while business and technology services still maintain a certain dynamism. This loss of momentum, combined with the downward trend in inflation, reinforces the scenario of a gradual economic slowdown, which later opens the way for the beginning of the monetary easing cycle. Therefore, the current performance of services does not require maintaining high interest rates for a much longer period. On the contrary, it is beginning to indicate that monetary tightening has already played a significant part of its role, and that if the process of deceleration in inflation remains consistent, the central bank may feel more comfortable initiating gradual interest rate cuts next year – says the chief economist at PicPay, who expects the cycle to start in March, with a cut of 50 basis points, and a Celik of 12.5% ​​at the end of 2026.

Economist Renato Filoni, professor at Ibmec, points out that the rise in the value of the riyal against the dollar helps explain the scenario of growth in services combined with a slowdown in inflation.