Chile elects the president with the ultra-conservative José Antonio Kast as the favorite – a decisive turning point for the country

Amid the Christmas shopping and graduation ceremonies taking place near Santiago’s university campus these days, Chileans are preparing to elect the country’s next president this Sunday, an election that forecasts could be pivotal the most extreme right turn since the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet.

More than 15.7 million Chileans are registered to vote for the successor to Social Democrat Gabriel Boric between two candidates who are ideologically opposite: the ultra-conservative José Antonio Kast and the communist Jeannette JaraPart of the broad left-center-left governing coalition.

Jara won the first round on November 16 with just over 3.4 million votes (26.8%). only 380,000 votes over Kast (23.9%). And all polls now predict a victory for the former MP, who is running for the presidency of Chile for the third time.

On the same night of the November election, Kast received the support of Evelyn Matthei, a candidate from the most moderate and traditional right, and Johannes Kaiser from the most radical and libertarian wing, an outspoken defender of Pinochet. Together they combined for more than 50%, ensuring victory.

In addition, it is possible that the opposition candidate will receive at least some of the votes received by Franco Parisi, who surprised in November with 19.7% (more than 2.5 million votes) and came third.

The central figure became the chairman of the People’s Party, a right-wing populist who was in a distant fifth place in the polls. Now he has called on his supporters to declare the vote – the first mandatory presidential election in Chile since the end of the dictatorship – void because he does not identify with either candidate, whom he places at either end of the political spectrum.

However, all of the secret polls published before the election ban began two weeks ago predict a clear victory for Kast The unknown is on the verge of victory. The polls predict a difference ranging from 10 points (55% for Kast, 45% for Jara) to 18 points (58%-41%).

The Unpopularity of the governmentleaving with 30% support, and Jara’s political career in a country with a strong anti-communist tradition complicate her path to winning new votes, even as she tries to appeal to fear of the far right and defend her leadership against symbolic legislation such as the increase in the minimum wage, pension reform or the shortening of the working day to 40 hours a week, which she pushed through as labor minister in this government.

“It is possible that what happens in other Latin American countries is happening in Chile, regardless of whether they are left-wing or right-wing governments: the change between government and opposition,” he explained Clarion Marco Moreno, Director of the Center for Democracy and Public Opinion at the Central University of Chile. “Voters are punishing the lack of answers. This shows an attrition of the government, which has not responded to calls for change since the social outbreak of 2019 that led Boric to the presidency,” he added.

Furthermore, he stated: “Now order, security and economic improvements are needed. And whoever represents this best is right.”

In a country that lives in fear of a growing wave of increasingly violent crimes and with the seal foreign drug trafficking groups In recent years, the issue of security and border control has monopolized the election campaign.

According to the World Concerns report published in November by IPSOS, which tracks the perceptions of around 25,000 people in thirty countries each month, 63% of Chileans said security was their top concern. Immigration is now a concern for 40% of respondents.

Although it is still one of the safest countries in Latin America, Chile’s murder rate has doubled in the last decade, rising from 2.32 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2015 to 6.0 in 2024.

Throughout the campaign, both Jara and Kast promised measures to ease insecurity and tighten immigration policies in the country, where foreigners make up nearly 9% of the 18.5 million population.

The two candidates propose to protect the northern border and step up the fight against organized crime, but Kast advocates tougher measures such as: Mass expulsion of migrantsClassify migration as a criminal offense or Construction of maximum security prisons with complete isolation for drug trafficking leaders, similar to those set up in El Salvador under President Nayib Bukele, with whom he is on good terms.

Jara, who wants to continue the policies implemented by the Boric government, proposes more moderate measures to stem the flow of migrants, including an official register of the more than 330,000 undocumented migrants currently living in Chile.

He also advocates building more prisons, modernizing the police force and creating specialized teams to track and eliminate illicit funds that feed criminal organizations.

Looking ahead to the second round, Jara toughened his tone and defended the expulsion of foreigners who do not register or have committed crimes in Chile. He also did not rule out a state of emergency “if necessary” to win over the political center, which is demanding tougher measures in the face of the wave of insecurity.

On the economic level, Kast promised to boost investment, reduce bureaucratic hurdles and improve conditions for job creation. His plan also calls for a $1 million cut in public spending to ease the budget, although he has not provided details of how it will be implemented.

Jara, for his part, proposes an economic solution that combines growth with social protection, Increasing productivity and strengthening formal work. And he focused his proposals on maintaining the expansion of some benefits achieved during the Boric government, such as the minimum income of about $815 a month, limiting systematic increases in health and education, and cutting electricity bills.

On Sunday evening, Chileans will find out which country model will be outlined from March 2026. With little doubt about who will win, all eyes are on the vote difference, as the legitimacy of the future government and the scope to implement the promised changes will depend on it.