Wars usually end in one of two ways: either one side triumphs, or both are unable to defeat the opponent and seek a compromise.
Russia failed to subdue Ukraine in the 2022 invasion, and its growing military advantage will not bring Volodymyr Zelensky’s capitulation in sight. The Ukrainians now see their country exhausted, with no chance of reconquering the 20% of territory already lost.
There remains therefore the second alternative to end the conflict. Negotiating on this is a long and tortuous process, but there is always the possibility that an exogenous factor will speed things up.
Today this postman is called Donald Trump, unfortunately for Ukrainians. The American president has outlined, in his new national security strategy, what he thinks of Russia, a nuclear power with which a stable relationship is a priority.
The corollary of this is the sacrifice of kyiv, which depends on American weapons, once donated and now purchased through its patrons in Europe. These same characters, powerless in the face of Trump’s wishes, are buying time by denouncing the meaning of the agreement.
On Thursday (11), Zelensky clearly stated that he was not sure of the terms discussed alone between Putin and Trump’s envoys in the Kremlin, a week earlier. He said he feared “secrets that could be revealed.”
The latest exchanges in the peace efforts suggest that the Ukrainian is right. First, a text was written by Russians and Americans giving in to almost all of the Kremlin’s demands.
Then there was a reaction from kyiv with European aid. In doing so, Zelensky’s chief negotiator, Andrii Iermak, became the victim of a corruption scandal, increasing domestic pressure.
The meeting in Moscow took place, during which Putin reaffirmed his demands: Ukrainian land and military neutrality. The pressure on Zelensky to respond suggests the White House has bought most of the package.
kyiv then presents a new counter-proposal, beginning to give in by admitting territorial losses. There are nuances, such as the creation of a demilitarized zone in the occupied east of the country – which the Russians agree with, provided they monitor it.
Zelensky also launched an idea doomed to practical failure and political exhaustion: subjecting concessions to a referendum.
Trump wants to resolve the war he promised to end within 24 hours by Christmas. He might even succeed, but everything indicates that the person honored will be Putin.
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