As in the rest of Spain, in theIn the Basque Country, the increase in the foreign population linked to migratory movements marks the agenda of parties and institutions, which try to adapt to the changes that this phenomenon causes in society. Here, … However, it has a derivative different as is the campaign for independence which, according to the Basque sociometer, even if it would be decreasing overall,It is consolidated among those who were born outside our borders, who would be the most likely to vote “yes”.
Since 2021, the Sociological Prospecting Office of the Presidency of the Basque Government has published three times a year the results of a survey in which it questions 3,000 peoplewhat is your “attitude towards independence” of the region. The calls, launched by the Ikerfel company, cover the three provinces of Alava, Vizcaya and Gipuzkoa, and draw the panorama around this feeling, grouping the responses into different groups in addition to giving a general vision.
The latter actually dates back to 1998, the year marked by Estella’s Pact and in which Arnaldo OtegiHe presented himself for the first time as a Lendakari candidate for the head of Batasuna (then Euskal Herritarrok). Since then, those who say they “disagree” with the Declaration of Independence have continued to grow, from 24% to 38% of those surveyed. At the same time, the proportion of those who would or would not agree, depending on the circumstances, fluctuated between 36% almost three decades ago and 32% last November.
A lateralized trend similar to that of those who would “agree” with independence, between 25% in 1998 and 23% marked during the last survey in 2025. Between the two, this option had a peak at 30% in 2014coinciding with the consultation convened by the Generalitat of Catalonia, then chaired byArtur Más. However, when breaking down the data by group, among those who lean towards independence, it turns out that it is the foreign population that obtains the highest results.
Concretely, in 2021, when Ikerfel started carrying out telephone consultations, the Basque sociometer report began to group the results into three different blocks. On the one hand, those born in the Autonomous Community of the Basque Country and the Foral Community of Navarre (“CAPV+Navarre”). On the other hand, those born in “the state”, referring to the rest of Spain and as if the two previous ones were not part of it and, thirdly, the sector of the population made up of “foreigners”. Without differentiating by country of origin.
Based on data from the latest sociometer, 39% of “foreigners” in the Basque Country are sympathizers of independence (249 people supervised in this group responded), ahead of 23% of those born in “CAPV+Navarra” (2,301 people supervised in this group responded). Among respondents who come from “the state” (479 people in this group responded), that figure would drop to 9 percent. Results which, far from being limited to this last edition, have been maintained since June 2021.
Thus, since this date, the annual average of “foreigners” “agree” with independence has always been greater than 30% (33% in 2021, 34% in 2022, 33% in 2023, 33% in 2024 and 34% in 2025). Meanwhile, the average of the “CAPV+Navarra” group did not exceed 25% (23% in 2021, 24% in 2022, 25% in 2023, 22% in 2024 and 22% in 2025) and that of the “State” reached its maximum at 12% (9% in 2021, 9% in 2022, 9% in 2023, 12% in 2024 and 9% in 2025).
“Progressive” sovereignty and immigration
As we become aware of these publications from the Basque Government, in which this tendency among foreigners and the loss of momentum of the independence movement emerge, the nationalist parties have moderated their discourse. Especially EH Bildu, who abandoned rupturist theses in favor of a “Progressive” process towards sovereignty. Furthermore, immigration has become another recurring subject of debate, forcing for example the PNV to modify its position on previously taboo issues.
In the case of the Aberzale left, it was in October 2024 that it presented its new roadmap. The Political Table of the coalition drafted the document with which it arrived at the III Congress, held in February this year, and which re-elected Arnaldo Otegi as Secretary General. EH Bildu opts for a “progressive process” to “recover sovereignty” and “apply anti-neoliberal public policies“. This is partly why left-wing projects like the Socialist Movement (MS) emerged and took off, criticizing its “institutionalization” and acquiring more radical positions.
The latest example of this “moderation” was the reaction of party leaders to the week of “anti-Spanish” attacks perpetrated by Ernaï in his campaign for independence. “EH Bildu does something else,” he said. Otxandiano Hairspokesperson for the party in the Basque Parliament, trying to stand out from the youth of Released (heir party to Batasuna and which “de facto” leads the coalition led by Otegi).
When it comes to the issue of immigration, Aberzale’s left makes no bones about attracting supporters among a growing pool of voters, and to do so it points to the alleged harshness of Spain’s immigration laws, which Sortu calls “murderous.” Only In 2024, there were 252,474 new nationalizations in Spain, which, without taking into account the incompatibilities established by the organic law of the general electoral regime (Loreg), grants the right to vote in regional and general elections. In total, 13,600 examples were produced in the Basque Country. If all these people had voted for EH Bildu in the April 2024 elections in the Basque Country, this would represent a significant 4% of their total votes.
The PNV has more difficulty constructing its discourse on immigration which, like Otegi’s party, currently relies on its nationalist aspirations for the approval of a new status. A text in which both intend to include the “right to decide”, but whose negotiation (in which the Basque Socialist Party also participates) is taking place in secret and without making public the progress made so far, despite the fact that they intended to reach a basic agreement before the end of the year.
Aitor Esteban’s party is trying to mark the distances with PP and Vox regarding the problem immigration, which the left Aberzale and his socialist partners in the Basque government use to punish the party. It is in this context that the president of the PNV declared, for example, during the last Aberri Eguna (Basque Homeland Day), that the next leader of the party could have both the surname “García” and “Hassan”.
A balancing exercise after the match assumed the growing feeling of insecurity among the population residing in the most disadvantaged areas, where immigration is concentrated in conditions close to social exclusion. Esteban’s party, for example, opposes the construction of a refugee center in the Arana district (Vitoria). This is what EH Bildu and the PSE used as an incentive at the end of October to stage, in opposition, the existence of an alternative left-wing majority in the Basque Parliament.
Added to this is the change in statistical data from the Ertzaintza, which now offers in its press releases the origin of the detainees (64% of people apprehended by the regional police in 2025 were foreigners, while they represent 14% of residents of the Basque Country). A decision by which the head of Security, Bingen Zupiria, also received criticism left. He initially attributed this measure to pressure from PP and Vox. From now on, it is the party itself which supports him.
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