All the limitations created by the framework have become a deception. The list of expenses classified as “exceptional” and removed from the calculation of the objectives promised by the government is only growing. During the four years of his term, spending excluded from the budget commitment will exceed 170 billion reais, a GLOBO report shows. Next year alone, almost 90 billion reais should be considered an exception, according to projections from the Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI), linked to the Senate. Spending outside the budget rule between 2024 and 2026 is equivalent to Bolsa Família spending over 12 months. As the figures show, the government has no way of regaining credibility in such a situation.
It may even be reasonable to remove from the target calculation an extraordinary event, such as the catastrophic flooding of Rio Grande do Sul in 2024. A public calamity of this magnitude required massive emergency economic aid, and the government deducted expenditures of 29.1 billion reais allocated to the state last year. But it’s ridiculous to use the same argument for other exceptions. This is the case of the R$5 billion of investments by public companies as part of the Growth Acceleration Program (PAC) in 2024. Or of the R$3.3 billion reserved to compensate victims of INSS fraud, which also became an exception after authorization from the Federal Supreme Court. Or temporary spending on health and education, estimated at 1.5 billion reais, which Congress is also trying to remove from the framework. There are no criteria. “At the time of approval of the project that exceptionalized 5 billion reais in defense spending (in October this year), we said that it could create a dangerous precedent. In fact, this is being confirmed,” Alexandre Seijas, director of the IFI, told GLOBO.
In formulating this framework, the government innovated by establishing a tolerance range for the objectives. In the event of unexpected shocks, the annual target would be considered achieved even if the final result was within a limit equivalent to 0.25 percentage points of GDP more or less. Everyone knows what the government did from that point on. He forgot the center, started looking only at the ground, and with each surprise, the list of exceptions grew longer. The result? On paper, the government is a staunch follower of the rules. In reality, the debt continues to grow. It is worth remembering: increasingly high public debts slow down investments and reduce the potential for economic growth over time, with all the resulting negative effects, particularly in the social field.
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