Under pressure, Trump seeks way out without invading Venezuela, says former US ambassador

At GLOBO, in examining U.S. threats to Venezuela, Feeley regretted identifying the same guidelines for the region during Trump’s second season in the White House. But it also highlighted an unexpected twist in the plot: the Republican’s irritation at having listened to his close advisers, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who were certain that a show of military force in the Caribbean would be enough to make Nicolás Maduro resign.

Three months after the first attacks on ships in the Caribbean which, according to the White House, were carrying drugs, and with more than 85 dead, Trump has failed to rid the continent of the “cancer of Chavismo” and has even created a crisis for himself, with the accusation of war crimes, Feeley points out. The US president still faces, less than a year before elections that will decide control of Congress in the United States, grassroots opposition to an invasion of Venezuela that could result in the loss of American lives. The Republican therefore seeks “a story of victory guided by the economic strangulation of Caracas and a clear demonstration that he has destroyed drug trafficking.” Without a clear strategy for post-Chavismo, Trump could, according to the expert, call on Brasilia to pacify the country.

• Tensions: The United States publishes a new national security strategy that confirms the revival of the Monroe Doctrine

After all, what is Washington’s strategy towards Venezuela?

There is no other strategy than Trump’s instinct. The president’s formative years were spent in 1970s New York, when the Mafia dominated the city’s illegal economy. He views geopolitics through the same prism as when he fought battles in the local real estate market. He sees the territories, identifies the leaders he considers weak or strong, imposes boundaries to avoid conflicts and not lose opportunities and money. He has divided the planet into zones of influence and, from Mexico, he expects people to kiss his hand, just like the presidents of Argentina, Javier Milei, and Salvador, Nayib Bukele. Anyone who challenges him will be removed, as provided for in his government’s national security strategy.

There is particular interest in the impeachment of Maduro, which presupposes a plan for post-Chavismo…

Rubio and the advisers Trump listens to have invested in regime change, in step with the Venezuelan opposition. But the ideological aspect does not matter to the president. Trump wants to please his close entourage in Florida, which concentrates the country’s Venezuelan and Cuban communities, which are part of his coalition. He was convinced by Rubio and other politicians that Maduro would go into exile if the United States exerted enough military pressure in the Caribbean without an invasion – which would pose a problem for his base in deep America, which has seen his family and neighbors bear the cost of “endless wars” in Iraq and Afghanistan. During last year’s campaign, Trump assured them that this would not happen again. And in the film about post-Maduro Venezuela that they sold to Trump, his role is that of a peace organizer, who frees the region from the cancer of Chavismo. Since he loves ego massage, he gave the go-ahead.

But that didn’t happen…

There is a distance between the gradual collapse of a dictatorship and a total change of regime. And Washington ideologues seem to ignore the real Venezuela. They even sold Trump that the fall of Maduro would be the prelude to the end of Castroist Cuba, even if today economic aid from Caracas to Havana is weak. Because Trump has not yet become a continental hero and his government was accused, after the attacks in the Caribbean, of war crimes. Extremely irritated, he feels cheated and finds himself trapped, unable to go back. Maduro already knows that there is a risk of bombings and economic strangulation of Venezuela (illustrated by the American capture of an oil tanker last Wednesday), but also that the American military presence in the region is currently insufficient for an invasion.

Is his assessment correct?

I was a Marine, and the U.S. field force in the Caribbean is impressive, with at least 2,200 highly trained troops, but many more would be needed to control the country. It is deadly, with the power of surgical attacks against traffic, military devices and buildings like the Miraflores Palace, but not invasion. There are also personnel capable of carrying out operations similar to those that eliminated Osama bin Laden, but with the risk of American losses. Washington takes into account the use of Russian defense weapons, Cuban agents in the country and Chavista counterintelligence. He knows that Caracas probably wouldn’t be able to predict the attacks, but that they could inflict enough damage to make it difficult for Trump in next year’s election. And the victory of the Democratic candidate, after 30 years of Republican domination, at Miami town hall last Tuesday, increased the government’s fears.

What will be the next steps for the United States in Venezuela?

The most plausible scenario foresees attacks in the coming days with Tomahawk missiles in the west of the country to destroy operational traffic centers. Then declare victory and build the narrative that, from the start, the important thing was to decimate the drug trade. Diplomatic contacts resume with an economically weakened Caracas to guarantee, among other things, the most advantageous oil exploration. Special Envoy Richard Grenell returns for discussions on new elections and the democratic transition. Without a single American dead, this is a story that Trumpism can buy.

And what role could Brazil play in this scenario?

President Lula is an experienced negotiator. After rehabilitating himself politically, he pulled another rabbit out of the hat by convincing the White House to no longer listen to Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro and, yes, Itamaraty in the tariff crisis. Venezuela represents a legitimate interest for Brasilia, due to the border, national security, forest, indigenous peoples and refugees. With Brazil also facing decisive elections next year, it is interesting that Lula presents himself as a statesman capable of engaging with both camps. Something which, due to recent contingencies, seems capable of doing so. He could, if he manages to act intelligently, be of great use to Trump, and precisely at the moment when the American finds himself in a snooker situation.