The Brazilian COP 30 presidency speaks of “cautious optimism” in negotiations, but the impasse persists

Four items that were excluded from the official COP30 agenda continue to be addressed in consultations between the COP presidency and delegations, and at the beginning of the talks in Belém a new impasse emerged, this time over adaptation.

While the Brazilian presidential team speaks of a “healthy negotiating climate” and ensures that these impasses always emerge and are part of the process, other delegations are trying to modify scheduled negotiations, negotiations that come from other COPs and fall within the official agenda of the agreement. In other words, there is already a mandate to move forward with certain negotiations.

To amend this mandate, consensus is needed, like everything agreed to in the agreement. This is what some groups, including African countries, intend to do with the adaptation document, which has been negotiated for two years and is a priority of the COP30 presidency.

It provides for the establishment of at least 100 indicators to measure countries’ progress in adaptation. As diplomat William Chagas, head of the Brazilian negotiating team, explains, “The goal of global adaptation is a mandate for this COP. Anyone who wants to oppose this goal will need to convince 197 countries.”

The decision to change or postpone this authorization must be negotiated. The game has begun, and it is natural to advance and retreat, says Chagas.

“The (adaptation) indicators are global and will be defined as voluntary,” the chief negotiator explained. The Brazilian diplomat’s clarification seeks to reverse the position of countries that now want to make changes to the document, claiming that they will need funding to adopt these future indicators.

– What we are looking for is for countries to have a ruler to measure the extent of progress they can make in the field of adaptation, which is one of the main goals of the Paris Agreement. Chagas said there is demand for more financing that does not generate debt, but the indicators are available to everyone and it will be important for the process to achieve what the process generates.

The diplomat believes that fulfilling the mandates of the Conference of the Parties “is a way to strengthen multilateralism and demonstrate that the climate process is resilient, strong and continues to be positive for all.”

— Brazil wants to comply with the mandates — confirmed the Brazilian chief negotiator.

With this new impasse, the issue of financing, which dominated COP29 in Baku, is once again at the center of discussions. In parallel, the Brazilian presidency is holding consultations to discuss four items that were excluded from the agenda, and for which there are still no clear expectations.

The new elements have been proposed by groups such as European Union countries, like-minded developing countries, known as like-minded developing countries, and African countries and small islands.

In the first two days of COP30, two seven-hour meetings were held to discuss these items. One of them is related to Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement, which talks about the flow of finance and stipulates that developing countries, the historical polluters of the world, must finance climate action in developing countries.

Other clauses talk about Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs, which explain what each country will do to reduce its emissions, and what its goals are in this regard), or so-called ambition targets.

It is important to prevent global warming from exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius by several degrees, which is the most ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement signed ten years ago. A provision on transparency reporting and unilateral trade measures also remains pending.