The victory of the conservative leader José Antonio Kast The Chilean runoff election on Sunday is once again changing the political landscape of South America shifts the balance even further in favor of the law in a region that appears to move as if in a block.
If the leader of the Republican Party takes the presidential chair, Chile will become the sixth country in the subcontinent –to Argentina, Bolivia, Peru, Paraguay and Ecuador– by putting a leader on the right side of the spectrum in charge.
However, this ideological pendulum may be a consequence rather than a cause of the electoral victories that ousted longstanding left-wing governments across the region. as the population expresses their rejection of the establishmentaccording to experts who spoke to THE NATION.
“Much of these positive results for the right are thanks to a tired, anti-government electorate that is making very specific demands that left-wing governments have failed to meet. They are cycles of frustration rather than ideological” he agreed THE NATION the director of the International Studies program at the University of Torcuato Di Tella, Juan Negri.
Of the six countries with right-wing leaders Five have come along and displaced governments that belong to the other end of the ideological spectrum.
The most recent case is that of Boliviawhere the center-right senator Rodrigo Paz deposed the party of indigenous leader Evo Morales and the former president Luis ArceHe Movement towards Socialism (MAS)after twenty almost uninterrupted years of reign.
In Ecuador, The political change came earlierif in 2017 Lenin Moreno He distanced himself from his political godfather’s left-wing project Rafael Correa and took liberal measures.
In this context, the election victory of Daniel Noboa In 2023, he only deepened his chosen path even further, as the 35-year-old entrepreneur took the liberal line on economic issues increased the discourse about the “iron fist”..
On the other hand, there is the case of Peruits conservative interim president Jose Jeri came to replace the leftists Dina Boluratefired due to her alleged “permanent moral incapacity.” However, next year the country will go to the polls to begin a new presidential cycle. Therefore, Peru’s political fate is still not clear.
And of course Argentinawho in 2022 decided to punish the former president’s management Alberto Fernandez and invest the libertarian president Javier Milei.
Paraguay is the only exception to this trendsince the current presidential term Santiago Pena It does not mean a break with a left-wing legacy. On the contrary, he is conservative Colorado party has ruled for most of the last seven decades.
At the same time, while there seems to be a clear direction in the changing political mood in the region and “the labels of right-wing style allow moments to be captured very clearly, If you pay a little more attention, they need to be nuanced. The left just won Uruguayis very strong in it MexicoAnd Brazil And Colombia They are still ruled by the left,” Negri said.
Therefore, the comparison with the “Pink Tide” of the early 2000swhere a wave of left-wing governments dominated elections across Latin America may still prove a long way off.
“I don’t see anything similar to the cycle defined by the presidencies of (Néstor) Kirchner, Lula (da Silva) or (Hugo) Chávez where there was a pretty clear regional thread and pretty explicit political coordination,” Negri said.
“Today we see great fragmentation, even among countries where the right is winning. There is no common regional agenda, no common right-wing projectanother country that wants to articulate regional leadership,” the expert added.
In fact, even the right wing affiliation of this new regional wave may not be guaranteed.
“Kirchner and Lula relied on a functioning party system. The law of Milei, (Nayib) Bukele either cast It works with new parties emerging from personalist leaderships. They are not comparable. The latter happens without ideological loyalty, with electorates outside the left-right spectrum.“, he said in dialogue with THE NATION Martha LagosFounder and Director of Latinobarómetro, the most prestigious annual opinion poll on the continent.
“You can see that at first glance In several countries in the region, voters are voting for non-establishment options to criticize how politics works in their country,” the pollster added, downplaying the political nature of these phenomena.
However, although there is no well-articulated project or program logicThe Latin American pendulum phenomenon seems to fit into a larger context.
“This shift to the right has some local causes, but it also has global causes. To say that it is only happening in Latin America would actually be an understatement.” I believe that there are symptoms of this process of right-wing cultural reaction in all parts of the world.“said the political theory expert and professor at the School of Government at Adolfo Ibáñez University in Chile. Christopher Bellolioin dialogue with THE NATION.
This blow, explained the academician, “It is perceived as a kind of revenge against progressivismwhich for a long time pushed the boundaries of what was possible and left the right-wing world, the most conservative world, even the most liberal world, feeling unsafe to say what they thought.”
At the same time, the right-wing trend also has to do with the Emergence of new priorities on the political agenda from South America, experts warn.
“I think the issue of security is one of the issues on the agenda that contributes to fatigue with those in power and probably affects the left more,” he said THE NATION Luis SchenoniPolitical scientist and professor at University College London.
The growth of the drug trade with the expansion of cartels like the Venezuelan one Aragua train which took advantage of the migration of Venezuelan exiles to expand its activities, and organizations that work under the protection of the First Capital Command Brazil, for example, has in recent years exacerbated the insecurity problems that already existed in the region.
In Peru, for example, crime rates have increased dramatically, with homicides increasing by 137% between 2018 and 2024 and extortion increasing by 370% between 2021 and 2023, according to figures from its own Ministry of the Interior.
In Chile, the latest report states Center for Public Studies (CEP), 60% of respondents believes that crime, and in particular robbery, is the main problem in the country.
“If progressive alternatives end up leading to high inflation or a significant deterioration in security, voters will lean toward more conservative options that promise fiscal discipline and a tough hand,” he said THE NATION Gabriel NegrettoProfessor of the Department of Social Sciences at the Carlos III University of Madrid.
And although not all of them apply only to this country, “in the Chilean case it still needs to be added.” the social outbreak factor, the pandemic and the immigration phenomenonwhich placed public policy and the economy at the center of the agenda. And in the world, those who talk about economic growth and a strong hand, about controlling crime, criminality and illegal immigration, are generally the sectors closest to the right,” Bellolio reflected.
In this context Three important elections are planned for next year They can finalize the region’s political direction and perhaps provide greater clarity about the future.
“We have, it seems to me, a case that illustrates each of the possible directions in which the region can go in the future.” And The outlook for 2026 somehow illustrates how uncertain the wave is. that we are referring to,” summarized Schenoni.
Peru’s parliamentary elections scheduled for 2026 will reshape the legislative scenario and appoint a replacement for the interim president a country that has had six presidents in almost a decade.
In a context of severe institutional erosion and political discredit, “every offer, whether from left or right, promising order or something new“It can grow very quickly,” Negri said.
“A clearer case is that of Colombia, where several conservative or center-right figures, such as the mayor of Bogotá, now have a much greater capacity to participate in the 2026 elections probably (Colombian President Gustavo) Peter In the end he lost the elections“Schenoni reflected.
The Colombian president is coming with us one of the highest disapproval rates in the region and with almost three months until the elections, it seems difficult to imagine that he will be able to put together an electoral scenario that is favorable to him.
On the other side of the spectrum is Brazil, which is also awaiting elections in 2026 but could stay the last bastion of the democratic left in the region.
The Brazilian President, Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaHe knew how to capitalize on his confrontation with Trump over tariffs remained strong in the pre-election polls October, even though he was one of the faces of old politics.
Although the former president Jair Bolsonaro – the only one who seems capable of challenging the current president’s re-election – has already pledged his support for the candidacy of his son and senator Flavio Bolsonaro“So Lula has a very high influx of guaranteed votes Brazil seems the least volatile to me one of the three scenarios we are discussing,” Negri said.
In any case, says Negretto, this is only possible if one of the alternatives “manages to solve the core problems of the electorate.” a more sustainable realignment that ends the pendulum movement“, at least for a while.
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