Jair’s blessing for Flávio’s candidacy contradicts Michelle and extends the internal conflict to Bolsonarism

• “Bad army”: timeline shows the main moments of Jair Bolsonaro’s career

Although Flávio is considered, for the moment, as someone without viability by Centrão, the senator’s announcement was considered decisive for the advancement of the dosimetry project, which reduces the sentences of those convicted of the putsch plot, including his father. The text was finally approved in the House two days after Flávio said there would be “a price” to pay for withdrawing from the presidential flight. In the PL, the allies recognize that he participated in the conversations, but attribute the question of the plenary session to the President of the Chamber, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB).

Then Flávio reorganized his speech and began to assure, in public and private conversations, that he would not give up. Facing resistance, he attempted to lend his support at a dinner with Centrão leaders last week – the meeting, however, was described by those present as “stalled”, with little willingness to accommodate from the leadership.

While Flávio Bolsonaro positioned himself and searched for relevant conversations, Michelle overwhelmed herself. The former first lady stepped away from command of PL Mulher, suspended her travels and reduced her public visibility, putting her busy schedule on pause.

In a press release, PL Mulher stressed that “Michelle had already faced changes in her state of health” and that, in recent months, “in particular due to the tensions linked to the arrest of her husband and the constant injustices done to her and her family”, her immunity would have been affected.

— The absence was due to health reasons. Hers and concern for Laurinha — reinforces Senator Damares Alves (Republicanos-DF), close to the former first lady, by referring to Bolsonaro’s 15-year-old daughter with Michelle.

If, publicly, the allies treated the movement as a personal matter, the leaders of the PL describe this gesture, behind the scenes, as a symptom of the ongoing conflict within Bolsonarism. From the explicit approval of Flávio’s postulation, Michelle began to express her discomfort with her husband’s decisions. Privately, he confided that he would have to “settle for the Senate,” a phrase that began circulating in the acronym as a summary of the moment.

The disorderly situation was evident during Michelle and Flávio’s visit to Jair, at the Federal Police headquarters, where he is detained, last Tuesday. Interlocutors report that the former president reacted enthusiastically to the advances in dosimetry and reaffirmed that the intention was to keep his son as a candidate. Michelle, in turn, reportedly made a direct outburst, complaining about being excluded from central definitions.

Before Flávio’s announcement, Michelle was experiencing her greatest political rise within the PL. The previous week he intervened on the Ceará platform and expressed the withdrawal of the party’s support for Ciro Gomes, contradicting the position defended by Flávio, Eduardo and Carlos Bolsonaro.

“No one holds back”

This episode was treated internally as the first explicit demonstration that she was beginning to exercise real power over strategic decisions. He thus ceased to be a simple electoral asset, and began to be treated as a central voice in the strategies for 2026, including by those who defended his presence on the presidential list. “No one can hold Michelle back anymore,” some right-wing politicians even said.

In public, Michelle put her discomfort aside and wished her stepson blessings on the journey. The cordiality was reciprocal: Flávio declared that she would play a fundamental role in 2026 and already emphasized that he was the heir with the best relationship with the former first lady.

When contacted, Michelle and Flávio did not speak. It was up to the allies to reinforce the pacification discourse:

— They all continue to have the same influence and in perfect harmony — guarantees MP Bibo Nunes (PL-RS).

The party’s leader in the House, Sóstenes Cavalcante (RJ) followed the same line, making a point of positioning Bolsonaro’s wife outside of a possible presidential list: