He Seville Economic Barometer Seville is expected to experience moderate growth, with growth GDP of 2.6% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026thanks to the sustained improvement in employment, the gradual reduction in unemployment and the … gradual normalization of prices.
The most favorable data are found in the Seville labor marketwith a positive development for next year. Employment growth is expected to be 1.1% in 2025 and accelerate to 2.3% in 2026.
In parallel, the unemployment rate will continue its downward trajectory, reaching approximately 13.8% in 2025 and 12.7% in 2026, according to this report prepared by the Professional College of Economists of Seville and Loyola University presented at the headquarters of the College of Economists of Seville.
“These levels, which consolidate a significant improvement in the labor market, They are close to the figures before the pandemic and they reflect a continuity in the generation of employment opportunities,” says María del Carmen Delgado, executive director of the Seville Economic Barometer and director of the Department of Economics at Loyola University.
For his part, provincial inflation reaches an annual average of 2.6% in 2025, moderate to 2.0% in 2026, in line with the expected trajectory for Andalusia and the ECB’s stability objective.
2025 assessment: services, tourism and construction
The first quarters of 2025 reflect a pace of activity which, although more contained than in 2024, maintains its fundamental pillars: services, tourism and construction. Available data suggest that social security membership has been increasing, supported by net job creation in key sectors such as hospitality, commerce and personal services.
At the same time, urban transactions and construction activity show signs of reactivation, which is restoring dynamism to the local real estate market.
The service sector, reinforced by tourist demand and the rebound in mobilitycontinues to be the main driver of domestic consumption. Even if growth does not reach “post-pandemic boom” levels, the combination of relatively stable employment, sustainable consumption and a recovery in tourism helps maintain an environment of confidence for businesses and households.
At the company level, the creation of new commercial companies denotes a gradual recovery of the productive fabric, with a particular impact on activities linked to professional services, retail and logistics. This phenomenon reflects economic diversification which contributes to reducing dependence on traditional sectors.
Inflation in Seville has increased and sustained over the past six months, rising from a level of around 2% in April 2025 to around 3% in October of the same year. Rising inflation responds to the upward trend presented by the housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels component throughout the year.
Affiliation to social security continues to record historic highs month after month, a trend that has been occurring since 2024. As of September 2025, the province recorded 838,052 affiliates. Despite the good results in particular, the unemployment rate in the province increased from 13.89% in the second quarter of 2025 to 14.41% in the third quarter of 2025.
Finally, indicators of energy consumption and associated services suggest relatively stable demandindirect reflection of both productive activity and the residential and tertiary dynamism of the province.
BES Index and Forecast
As for the quarterly synthetic indicator of economic activity of the province of Seville, for the third quarter of 2025 it amounted to 114.4 for Seville (compared to 121.6 in the previous quarter) and 129.4 for Andalusia (compared to 128.3 in the previous quarter).
For Seville, even if the indicators are higher than the reference values, practically all showed less dynamism compared to the second quarter of the year, with the exception of consumption of affiliated with electric energy and Social Securitywhich showed a slight increase.
They highlight overnight stayswhich recorded a significant drop compared to the second quarter of 2025, more pronounced in July and resuming in September. Comparing the index with the same period in 2024, we observe that overnight stays show a similar trend.
Exports They also presented a significant decrease compared to the previous quarter (5%), although, similar to the previous case, this is a situation presented in previous years. The latter two, as well as incorporated business companies, are those responsible for the fall indicated in the BES this quarter.
National and international context
In the report, experts report moderate growth in the global economy, with greater capacity to adapt than expected. In a context marked by geopolitical tensions, commercial fragmentation and a cycle of normalization of economic policies, it shows signs of stabilization, supported by the partial recovery of supply chains, technological progress and exceptional resilience in certain strategic sectors.
USA continues to suffer from the decline in private consumption and the reduction in public spending; the eurozone maintains a very contained pace, with forecast growth of 1.3% in 2025 and only 1.2% in 2026; and China remains immersed in a process of structural deceleration.
Spain, on the other hand, maintain a solid growth rate and records an increase in GDP of 2.8% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, with growth rates similar to those of Andalusia.
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