Donald Trump’s popularity is at its lowest levels since his inauguration. More than the rock bottom in April, in terms of tariffs and financial turmoil. In the average poll calculated by Silver Bulletin, 55% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s performance, and 41.4% approve of him. Thus, the negative balance was more than 13 points this Wednesday. At the beginning of the term, in January, the balance was positive, approximately 12 points.
The Republican Party lost the partial elections that took place last week by an overwhelming majority. In polls, voters cited the cost of living as a major concern (it’s a global issue that, since 2022, deserves attention).
The government shutdown crisis also went badly, and Republicans were mostly to blame. More than 700,000 federal employees remained without pay, 42 million Americans were left without food assistance (or a significant portion of it), and so on. Yes, out of every 8 Americans, 1 depends on federal food assistance.
Trump then went on to say that he would restore $2,000 in taxes to families earning up to $100,000 annually (taxes he increased with the tariffs). He said he would reduce the import tax on coffee.
People in your government are also talking about removing the burden of tariffs on bananas and other fruits and things that the United States doesn’t produce. In addition to Trump’s political problems, pressure from American companies, such as coffee roasters, favors expensive Brazilian products.
The price of ground coffee at US retail has risen 18.9% in one year, through September (no more recent statistics, due to the “lockdown”). In Brazil, it was much worse (54.6% in the 12 months through September, and 48% through October), but Americans are not used to inflation and are still shocked by what they see from 2022 onward.
The food price inflation rate is 3.1% annually (in Brazil, 5.5%). In addition to coffee, beef (14.7%) and bananas (6.9%) increased the most.
The amount of coffee Brazil exports has been falling even before Trump’s tariffs, since April (compared to the same month in 2024), and not just to the United States. The quantity sold also fell for other major buyers, such as Germany, Belgium and Italy.
But despite all this and the tariffs, the value of Brazilian exports is growing, due to the high price of the product on the world market. Although it does not make up for lost sales to the United States and Europeans, exports to Japan, especially China, have increased nicely.
These compensations and the higher price meant that the value of exports rose by more than 35% over the past twelve months.
Another group of products affected by the tariff also declined, namely fresh or dried fruits and nuts. Prices fall, but the quantity sold increases. The value of exports increased by 6.2% within 12 months. so what?
First, at least on the whole, these exporters have managed to get by; are able to find a market. Second, yes, it is essential for the US market to recover, especially since product shortages can mean loss of consumer habits and business relationships, which is always a risk. Third, the sector that will have the most difficulty adapting, namely machinery and equipment (because it produces for specialized outlets), needs a lot of support in negotiations with the United States. Fourth, it is time to negotiate.
Trump, who until that day had thought it was interesting to buy groceries, blinked at the talk about the prices of coffee and bananas.
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