In conversation with Channel E, Eric PaniaguaThe economist at Épica explained the repercussions of withdrawing dollars from the central bank after activating the swap with the United States and predicted the behavior of the exchange rate during the month of December.
Swap the spare scene change
In response to a question about the partial activation of the swap with the United States, Paniagua He explained that “In general, it means withdrawing dollars from the central bank reserveWhich means that the Argentine Central Bank loses part of its available reserves.
The economist explained:It was an accounting device through which the central bank was supplied with reserves from the US Treasury“And now this money.”It goes back to its origin, which is specifically the US market or the US Treasury“.
In this sense, he explained that the amount in question “It amounts to about $2.1 billion“, the number made available by the US Treasury to the central bank.”To stop the race that was seen before the elections“.
Exchange stability and expectations until the end of the year
When asked about the stability of the dollar in recent weeks, he said: Paniagua He emphasized that ““November, we may see relative calm,” but he warned that “December, seasonally, is a more complex month.”“.
The economist explained:December is likely to be the month when exchange rates rise excessivelyThis is due to increased demand for foreign currencies due to holidays and other seasonal factors.
Regarding the potential equilibrium value of the dollar, Paniagua I considered that “1500 pesos would be a reasonable value“On condition”Even at the worst moments, when the polls were very bad for the government and there was a lot of tension in the exchange, it was never possible to break this ceiling.“.
In this context, he said:The government is relieved by what Caputo said, as are many productive sectors“, so the market is expected to stabilize around this price.
The United States and the political impact of the swap
Regarding the American interest in this agreement, the economic expert pointed out that “The gains achieved by the United States in nominal and real terms are very small“.
to PaniaguaThe benefit was more political than economic: “It allows Trump and his team to prove to the American public that they have done something positive with taxpayer money“But he stressed that.”This is not a really significant gain for US coffers“.
The specialist concluded that, beyond symbolism, the real impact of the swap on the Argentine economy will be limited, as long as the local market remains attentive to the development of the exchange rate and seasonal demand for foreign currency.
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