The dynamics of Currency settlement from the agricultural export sector is an important thermometer for the Argentine economy. In recent years, agricultural exports have not only been the main driver of dollar income, but also a key player in the country’s macroeconomic stability.
However, the implementation of Decree 682/2025 The law enacted at the end of September that ordered a temporary reduction in grain retentions had a full impact on foreign exchange flows in November, leading to an abrupt decline in liquidations and raising red flags in the market and the government.
An Untypical November: Currency Settlement Drops 32%
According to the Chamber of the Oil Industry of the Argentine Republic (CIARA) and the Cereal Exporters Center (CEC), companies that account for almost half of national exports are liquidating foreign currencies Agricultural export sector In November, it only reached $759.7 million.
This value represents a decrease of 32% compared to October 2025. The collapse was the direct consequence of a temporary reorganization of the sector’s commercial and financial dynamics, which arose from the expectation of sales and liquidations in September and the exploitation of the favorable conditions provided by the temporary suspension of export tariffs.
Despite this monthly decline, the annual average cumulative between January and November shows one Increase of 24% compared to the same period in 2024. However, the sharp decline in November highlights how sensitive the system is to regulatory changes and that the causes and consequences of these movements need to be analyzed in more depth to understand the current scenario and anticipate future trends.
The last few months and the effects of the measure
If we compare the performance of the Currency settlement of agricultural exports between August, September, October and November 2025, a dynamic can be observed that is clearly influenced by the regulatory context.
In August, liquidation remained at a similar level to the annual average. without any big surprises. However, in September, the opening of the “window” without export duties under Decree 682/2025 led to an unusual peak, with companies accelerating their sales and liquidations to benefit from the transition tax regime, resulting in a significantly higher value than usual, recording a record value of $7,107 million.
The liquidation was still reflected in October Residual effect of the measurea normalization and some decline is already observed, reaching $1,117 million.
November finally showed up a sharp decline of 32% And so the monthly sequence shows how fiscal stimulus and expectations of regulatory changes can distort the sector’s typical seasonality and lead to sharp jumps and falls in currency flow.
Temporary reduction in withholding tax: causes and effects on settlement
The decision of Milei government The temporary suspension of withholding tax by Decree 682/2025 had a double effect. On the one hand, it encouraged progress in foreign currency settlements in September and October as companies sought to take advantage of the new tax regime. On the other hand, it led to a significant decrease in November, as a large part of the operations was concentrated in the previous months. This mechanism repeats itself every time tax changes of this caliber are implemented, as exporters adjust the pace of their external sales and settlements depending on the tax and regulatory situation.
The monthly income in foreign currency, converted into pesos, is essential so that exporters can continue to purchase grain from producers at the same time. best possible price. Liquidation is mainly associated with the purchase of grain that will later be exported, either as a primary product or after industrial processes.
In the current context, most foreign exchange earnings have occurred in advance, a phenomenon that responds to search Maximize profits due to the decline in withholding taxes, which in turn reveals the volatility created by regulatory changes in the flow of dollars.
Exogenous factors affecting export dynamics
The behavior of foreign exchange settlement and Volume of agro-industrial exports It doesn’t just depend on internal regulations. The grain trade cycle is subject to a variety of exogenous factors such as international price fluctuations, reductions in supply, fluctuations in the quantity and protein value of crops, climatic conditions, holidays, union coercion, regulatory changes, tariff and para-tariff barriers abroad, and phytosanitary or quality requirements of other markets.
In recent months there have been trade tensions between USA, China, Brazil and Argentina have directly influenced the export scenario of agricultural raw materials. The tariff war between Washington and Beijing led to strategic moves such as increasing Chinese purchases from Brazil and Argentina to offset restrictions on American products, creating opportunities but also greater competition for local producers.
At the same time, Brazil is consolidating its position as Main supplier of soybeans for China, This partially displaces the United States and forces Argentina to look for market niches and diversify its travel destinations, in an environment where diplomatic negotiations and fluctuations in bilateral relations can abruptly alter trade flows. This context of global rivalries and alliances has created new levels of uncertainty and volatility in Argentina’s agricultural export sector, which must quickly adapt to changes in international rules and growing competition for the most profitable markets.
The Oilseed-Grain Complex: Pillar of Argentina’s Exports
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), The oilseed-cereal complex, which includes biodiesel and its derivatives, contributed 45% of Argentina’s total exports in 2024. Soybean meal is the main export product, followed by soybean oil and corn. This structure shows the national economy’s strong dependence on the performance of the agribusiness sector, which continues to stagnate in terms of production and export growth, mainly due to fluctuations in international prices.
The lack of diversification and low value creation at the source remain structural challengesThis is for the country, which relies on agricultural exports to support its trade balance, but whose growth potential is limited by internal and external factors that are difficult to resolve in the short term.
How currency settlement works for agricultural exports
The foreign exchange settlement mechanism in the Argentine agricultural export sector It is complex and follows a logic of anticipation. When exporting grain, foreign exchange settlement is usually carried out around 30 days before the actual export; for oils and protein flour, the period can be up to 90 days. This anticipation depends on the phase of the agricultural campaign and the specific crop variety, which means that there are no structural delays in the execution, but rather that the flow responds to the mechanics of the business and the expectations created by the current regulatory framework.
The majority of foreign exchange enters the system before physical export takes place Exporters Offer producers better prices and maintain the competitiveness of the sector. However, if there are abrupt changes to the rules, such as: B. a temporary reduction in withholding tax, these conditions and volumes may change significantly, resulting in peaks and troughs in dollar inflows.
Perspectives and challenges: between volatility and opportunity
Looking ahead, the agricultural export sector faces a complex scenario in which the Volatility The development of international prices and the dependence on climatic factors will continue to set the pace. The experience of November 2025 shows that tax incentives, such as the temporary reduction in withholding tax, can have contradictory effects, such as: B. an advance on settlement and a subsequent slowdown in foreign exchange earnings.
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