Retirement spending will increase by another 12.6 billion in 2026, the equivalent of an additional salary

The pension bill is not only increasing because of the revaluation set for retirement pensions, based on the CPI. The fact is that the State must also digest the increase in the minimum, the new maximum and the non-contributory. On average, increasing all of these modalities will result in a weighted increase in 5.81%, far from 2.7% that those of retirees will increase, according to calculations carried out by the IVIE in its forecast estimate of retirement expenses for 2026.

Of this item of 12.610 million additional euros for next year, some 7.311 million euros (58% of the total) correspond to the revaluation itself, which is calculated by law with the average inflation of the last 12 months. For its part, the IVIE plans an increase the number of pensionsestimated at around 400,000 more, as well as what is technically called “substitution effect”, which refers to the fact that the amount of the new benefits is greater than that received at the time of death. He estimates this impact at an additional 5.3 billion euros.

This statistical work calculates what the increase in pensions will be maximswhich will improve by 2.81% (compared to the general 2.7%) for the additional 0.11% that the law guarantees before the stop in parallel with the maximum contribution bases. These increase much more than future pensions thanks to reforms approved during the mandate of José Luis Escriva as Minister of Social Security. By 2026, the the maximum base will be 5,101 eurosalmost 4% more than this year. At the same time, the maximum pension will arrive, according to these calculationsup to 3,355 euros per month divided into 14 payments.

On the other hand, the minimum pensions They will reassess them by a maximum of 11.4% and a minimum of 7%. The government also has an obligation, arising from its own reforms, to ensure that the amount of these benefits – those received by those who have not completed the required contribution periods – increases.

In this sense, the minimum retirement pension with a dependent spouse, absolute or total disability of over 60 years with a dependent spouse or a widowed person with family responsibilities will reach 1,256 euros. For their part, those which do not include charges would be 888 euros. And those who do not have a spouse, at 936 euros.

Furthermore, the non-contributory pensions They will be reassessed in a similar way to the minimum rates, to reach the minimum poverty threshold, by a percentage higher than 11.3%, going from 564 to 628 euros per month, or around 64 euros more for each payment.

Taking all this into account, the cost of pensions would reach 13% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) compared to 12.9% this year. Year after year, the impact of this expenditure – the largest assumed by the public budget – increases and will continue until reaching 16% of national wealth in 2050, according to the estimate of the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (Airef).

Earrings of 2026

The impact of the increase in pensions on public accounts finds it difficult to protect from the incomethe increase of which will not compensate for the expense assumed. For example, from January, the legal retirement age increases to 66 years and 10 months. In addition, more contribution periods are taken into account.

The Achilles heel of the retirement system remains the money injections that the State makes to Social Security. Until the third quarter, the organization’s debt exceeds the 126 billion euros. Airef estimates that this type of transfer will be “they will get bigger and bigger” and that they will reach “triple their weight in GDP” by 2050.