Mexico must once again maneuver to calm the President of the United States, Donald Trump, in the face of his perpetual threat to impose customs duties if what he wants is not done. After having transferred dozens of drug traffickers to its northern neighbor, having taken responsibility for being its wall against migrants and having committed to doing more and more against drug trafficking, Claudia Sheinbaum’s government must now manage to send 249 million cubic meters of water before January 31, 2026 to comply with the Water Treaty. This represents only a small part of the total debt. During Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s six-year term, a deficit of 1,600 million cubic meters accumulated, another inherited hole that his successor has been trying to resolve for the past year.
“There has been a situation of prolonged drought since the late 1990s, which, combined with the demand for water on both sides of the border, with extensive crops in Mexico, has led to a water crisis that limits payments to the United States,” explains Alfonso Cortez Lara, research professor of urban and environmental studies at Colegio de la Frontera Norte. “If there is a national state that has experienced extreme drought, it is Chihuahua, then it is not possible to store this water and the delays begin,” he adds.
According to the 1944 Water Treaty between Mexico and the United States, the former must deliver to the latter, over five years ending in October, 2.158 million cubic meters of water from the rivers of the Rio Bravo or Rio Grande basin, depending on the border. From 2020 to 2024, the last four years of López Obrador, Mexico delivered only 500 million cubic meters of water. Since the arrival of Claudia Sheinbaum, the country has started to catch up and has managed to send more than 600 million cubic meters. Much of it happened after April, when the United States put pressure on Mexico, also with tariffs, precisely because of these non-compliances.
“What has been done since April has been something extraordinary,” Cortez Lara boasts, “the water has been obtained from other rivers and streams, the water has been brought from Nuevo León to fill the Amistad Dam and it is water that has not remained.” “I want to know what they are going to do now,” he asks, “if they manage to hide it, it will be something spectacular.”
According to the binational declaration, by January 31, 2026, a plan will be on the table for “the timely retribution of the exceptional deficit of the previous water cycle.” It is another of the many problems that the second stage of the fourth transformation inherits from its foundations, as also happened with the criminal violence, the shortage of medicines, the strong pressure on public spending or the cases of corruption that occurred during the previous sexennium.
Cortez Lara clarifies that, for the moment, Mexico is not violating the treaty. The previous five-year period having been fully respected, the treaty allows room for achievement throughout the first years of the 2025-2030 period. He says this isn’t even the first time a similar situation has happened. “Between 2001 and 2003, we also owed a lot of water, and the United States then put pressure on it, but also offered $40 million to invest in the river area and improve efficiency,” he recalls. “What happened today,” he said because of Trump’s threats, “is unprecedented.” For the President of the United States, these deliveries are vital to satisfy the electorate of Texas, a key state for conservatives and where local Republicans have for some time been calling for a hard line against Mexico for these non-compliances.
The Mexico-United States Water Treaty includes two other basins: the Tijuana River and the Colorado River. In the latter case, the United States has committed to supplying Mexico with a total of 1,850 million cubic meters of water per year. The United States has not delivered this full amount since 2021, although there was a series of negotiations in which Mexico agreed to these reductions. While previously shortages were not significant, by 2025 in Mexico the total has decreased by approximately 350 million cubic meters.
About The Author
