With the measures, which apply from January 1st, the government has changed two key aspects of its law Stabilization plan the economy despite the fact that, as he had said, they did not require any changes. It is a tacit acceptance of these difficulties that responds to two persistent demands from analysts, the market and even the IMF: necessity Accumulate reserves and from Avoid dollar lag.
First, it set up a program to accumulate reserves in the central bank so that it would no longer be dependent on all the dollar injections that the plan had previously envisaged, such as: B. the gradual reduction of withholding taxes, money laundering, the IMF and even direct aid from the US Treasury.
The decision brings certainty to Argentine bondholders. An expected reaction is one Reducing country riskwhich in turn accelerates issue debt at a lower rate than the 9.26% achieved last week.
No one expected Argentina to default because it could not pay the $4.3 billion due on January 9, but more details were requested on how Argentina will pay in the future. Until yesterday, the vice president of the BCRA, Vladimir Werninghad defended the decision not to buy reserves to investors.
The essence of the system is that BCRA purchases cannot exceed 5% of the daily volume traded on the market. At the same time the message from the President of the BCRA Santiago Bausili made it clear that the way reserves are purchased will be flexible (or ambiguous) enough for the BCRA to customize in its own way. There may be block purchases, direct purchases from the Treasury and even changes to that 5%, which “can be a lot or a little” depending on the day, Bausili said. BCRA expects to buy on a daily basis but does not want to become overly tied to one amount or strategy.
At the same time, the accumulation of BCRA reserves is tied to it the development of money demandThis is a clear signal that the premise of contracting money supply to reduce inflation is not being abandoned. Buying dollars means injecting pesos, and the central bank only wants to do this when economic activity requires it. Bausili also left the door open Sterilize weights if necessary.
From a policy perspective, it is also a response to the IMF and the inevitable failure to meet the reserve target agreed eight months ago. Bausili promised that “this aspect will be analyzed together with the Fund during the review in February.”
The second critical point is to modify the bands to avoid excessive appreciation. Since the program began The cap is adjusted to 1% if inflation exceeds 2%. and this difference began to have consequences. In January, the cap begins to rise at November’s 2.5% inflation rate, starting at 1,556 pesos. The central bank hopes that the dollar will not rise so much.
The lower band also accelerates your gliding, but downwards. In January, will decrease by 2.5% and will continue to expand the bands. In this way, the official idea that the lower margin will decline “until it becomes irrelevant” is reinforced.
There is also demand from many sectors of the economy, which feared that the decline in consumption and tax pressure would intensify a dollar that loses competitiveness. At least the exchange rate will be able to keep up with inflation in the coming months, something it failed to do at any point in 2025.
On the other hand, beyond the changes, both people and companies will face a changing market that will continue to function in a very similar way to the current one. The head of the central bank ruled out changing the ongoing foreign exchange restrictions. He Shares of companiesat the moment, is not touched.
The flexibility underlying this new system, in which the BCRA proposes many variants to decide how much and how to buy dollars, leaves its hands free to adapt to all the options offered by the economic scenario of 2026, in which it must meet obligations (bondholders, Bopreal, IMF and others) of $18,000 million.
The Director of the BCRA Federico Furiase He emphasized that the dollar supply will be generous not only due to the trade surplus, but also due to the financial balance with the income from investments of companies and provinces. With caution so as not to inject pesos that affect inflation, it will try to take advantage of these dollars.
The dollar will continue to face counter pressure. On the one hand, the dismantling of the “over-dollarization” of the months before the elections will continue towards the end of the year. At the same time, further pressures will come in the opposite direction next year. Companies will start demanding dollars to normalize the market Dividend transfer to their parent companies.
Many dollars are also exempted from money laundering accounts, allowing many to move them without incurring penalties. Bausili downplayed this last factor yesterday, but it is not clear in the market how this move will play out.
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