Brazil and China reach the end of the year with significant figures in soy sales and purchases. The Chinese, according to official customs data, imported 104 million tonnes from January to November, after purchasing 8.1 million last month.
It is enough to import 6 million in December for the Asian country to reach a record 110 million this year. Some estimates say December purchases could reach 7-8 million tonnes, bringing the annual volume to 112 million.
Brazil, the world’s main producer and exporter of oilseeds, is expected to end the year with cumulative exports of 109 million tonnes, according to data from Anec (National Association of Cereal Exporters), published this Wednesday (17). The association’s figures are based on scheduled shipments of ships leaving Brazil with soybeans.
Both countries’ results have a lot to do with U.S. tariff policy. China, anticipating Donald Trump’s restrictions at the start of his mandate, brought forward its purchases from the United States to the end of 2024, according to Daniele Siqueira, analyst at AgRural.
This anticipation of Chinese purchases, before the arrival of Trump, can be confirmed by the delivery of American products to the Asian country during the first months of this year. Until October, the latest official data available by origin, the Chinese had imported 16.8 million tonnes from the United States, compared to 15.1 million at the same period in 2024, still under the government of Joe Biden.
Once the tariff policy of the President of the United States was confirmed this year, the Chinese turned to Brazil, abandoning the American market. Until November, they purchased 82.8 million tons of Brazilian products, 16% more than during the same period in 2024.
Despite the trade war between China and the United States, the Chinese year was stronger than expected in terms of oilseed purchases, says Daniele. First, the Chinese secured advance purchases from the United States. Subsequently, they accelerated purchases in Brazil to increase stocks and have an internal product guarantee. Chinese action resulted in record purchases by China and record exports by Brazil.
As for the Chinese resumption of American purchases at the end of the year, the figures are still scattered. According to US government data, which is not up to date, China purchased 2.5 million tonnes. The market, however, estimates that shipments should reach 7 million by February. The magic figure of purchases expected by the American government is 12 million tonnes, according to a bilateral agreement which, in fact, has never been admitted nor denied by the Chinese.
American producers will begin to receive, in a more concrete way, competition from Brazilian products at the beginning of next year. Sowing for the 2025/26 crop is almost complete and the current situation is better than it was a few weeks ago.
For now, despite the replanting and the delay, the soybeans are recovering well, Daniele says. So much so that the latest production figures of 178.5 million tonnes forecast by AgRural could be corrected upwards during the next sector report. However, the performance of late soybeans must be monitored, according to her.
The good Brazilian harvest and the Americans’ difficulty in selling their production are reflected on the market. This Wednesday, the first contract was trading at US$10.58 per buhsel (27.2 kg) in Chicago, down 8.3% over the last 30 days.
No reaction Rice prices negotiated on the external market do not indicate a very favorable scenario for Brazilian producers, who are in the cereal sowing phase.
No reaction 2 According to monitoring by the Trading Economics agency, cereals are down 37% compared to values a year ago. Low prices abroad make exports difficult and keep domestic prices low.
Security China reserves 10.8 million hectares in the Yangtze River Delta for agricultural production alone.
Security 2 Until 2035, this area cannot be used for any other purpose, and the aim is to strengthen food security, according to Reuters.
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