The rise in between USA And Venezuela entered a more dangerous phase this week. On the oil sanctions and the announced blockade Donald Trump Sea movements were added Caribbeanmilitary escorts to Venezuelan ships and within hours an intensive diplomatic offensive from Nicolas Maduro to try to prevent a scenario of open confrontation. The formal complaint to the UN Security Council, made on Wednesday evening, was the final link in a dizzying sequence.
Chronology of the escalation between Trump and Maduro
The conflict was no longer limited to economic pressures after Caracas denounced “extrajudicial killings” in bombings in Venezuelan waters. Last Tuesday, Trump described Maduro and his leadership as “International terrorist organization” and ordered a Total closure against sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela. Hours later, the United States nearly seized a ship two million barrels of crude oil on the way to Asia.
The answer came immediately. On the night of Tuesday this Wednesday, December 17, the Venezuelan Navy began escorting ships leaving the port of José with petroleum products destined mainly for Asian markets China. As reconstructed by New York TimesThe ships were not on the current sanctions list, but Washington was closely monitoring the movements and evaluating “various approaches.” From that moment on, the threat of war in the Caribbean was no longer an abstract hypothesis, and even voices like that of host Tucker Carlson reinforced the rumor that direct US military intervention in Venezuelan territory was imminent.
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Maduro’s diplomatic offensive to contain Trump
In parallel, the Maduro government activated its diplomatic front throughout the day. The Venezuelan president spoke by telephone with the Secretary General of the United Nations. Antonio Guterres, to warn of the “escalation of threats” and their impact on peace in the region. For his part, the Venezuelan Foreign Minister Ivan Gil Pinto had a conversation with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi and sent a direct message to Xi Jinping, as stated on his Telegram channel. Beijing, in turn, expressed its “solidarity and firm support” for Venezuela in defending its sovereignty and international law. While Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum called for “bloodshed” to be avoided.
Only after these contacts did Caracas dare to take the institutional plunge: at 9:40 p.m. On Wednesday it denounced the United States UN Security Council for “open and criminal aggression” and called for an urgent meeting of the panel. In the text, he accused Washington of violating the United Nations Charter and seizing Venezuelan oil resources through a “colonial” claim. The move, meanwhile, was not aimed at immediate condemnation – the United States has veto power – but rather at internationalizing the conflict, buying time and increasing the political costs of direct action.
Implications of the “Trump episode” and his new security strategy
The moment is no coincidence. Last Friday, the State Department released the new United States National Security Strategy, which once again puts Latin America at the center of the geopolitical situation. Defined in Washington as a “Trump consequence of the Monroe Doctrine” – already informally christened as such Donroe doctrine by the first letter of the president’s name – the document portrays the region as the source of some of the greatest threats to the United States: migration, drug trafficking, transnational crime and the expansion of China.
“We want to ensure that the Western Hemisphere remains sufficiently well-governed and reasonably stable to prevent and discourage mass migration to the United States; we want a hemisphere that cooperates against narco-terrorists and remains free from hostile foreign incursions,” the text says. The message is clear: cooperation through economic incentives or pressure – including military pressure – if that cooperation does not materialize.
Meanwhile, Venezuela appears to be the primary target of this strategic redefinition. The country brings together all the factors of American interest: the world’s largest oil reserves, massive migration flows, transnational crime networks, close ties with China and Russia, and a government that Washington and much of the international community consider illegitimate, especially after the July 2024 election fraud.
The opinion of Tokatlian, Sanahuja and Malamud
For the internationalist Juan Gabriel Tokatlian, This change marks the transition from a logic of hegemony to a logic of discipline. “It is no longer about influence or leadership, but about domination. Latin America is once again seen as a zone of strategic control,” he said this Wednesday at the presentation of the Global Affairs magazine of the Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI), in which PERFIL took part. In this framework, the idea that the hemisphere “belongs” to the United States does not create “perplexity” but becomes the starting point for Washington’s foreign policy.
On the other hand, the “European silence” in the face of the escalation in the Caribbean reinforces this reading, according to Russian Foreign Minister Serei Lavrov. While Russia expressed concern about US “belligerent actions” in the Caribbean, China has been directly involved: it receives around 80% of Venezuelan crude oil and would be the actor most affected by an abrupt decline in exports.
For the renowned Spanish internationalist José Antonio Sanahuja, The episode fits into what he defines as the “interregnum” of the international order. “Multilateral organizations are losing effectiveness and legitimacy and becoming arenas of contention between hegemonic and counter-hegemonic forces,” he explained at the meeting moderated by CARI President Francisco de Santibañes. In this context, the use of force and securitization are gaining renewed importance, while the basic rules of sovereignty and non-intervention are being undermined.
On the other hand, the offensive against Venezuela is also part of the internal political electoral logic of the United States, which is faced with the strategic rearmament of the country Trumpism is set to succeed Trump (who cannot run for re-election unless Magna Carta changes). As the political scientist emphasized Andres MalamudThe pressure on Caracas is part of a larger equation in the Caribbean: If Venezuela falls, Cuba would be the next target, and whoever manages to “democratize” the island would retain political laurels in the United States.
In this scheme is the Foreign Minister Marco Rubio It embodies the hemispheric hard line of the new Donald Trump administration, which is at odds with other areas of MAGA and America First that advocate foreign non-interference; while other sectors of the Republican Party, such as that represented by the Vice President JD Vance, They warn of the danger of a prolonged intervention leading to an endless war in the style of “Iraq 2”.
On this unstable board, Maduro is playing a defensive game. The combination of Navy escorts And diplomacy accelerated It is not about winning the battle with the United States, but rather about avoiding immediate defeat and containing escalation that could lead to excess. Trump, on the other hand, appears determined to redefine the relationship with the region as the focus of his foreign policy based on strategic interests.
In development…
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