He Country risk Argentina recorded a slight upward trend this Friday December 19, 2025breaking a series of significant declines earlier in the week.
Country risk in Argentina represented a variation 0.9% and stood there 573 points at the end of it Friday, December 19, 2025.
After breaking through key levels, the indicator showed a positive change compared to the previous close, reflecting a stabilization in the prices of public government securities following the latest economic news.
This index is an indicator developed by the JP Morganwhich measures the difference in interest rates that U.S. Treasury bonds pay compared to bonds from emerging countries, in this case the Argentine Republic.
Argentina’s sovereign risk is stabilizing after hitting 2018 lows on stock market announcements
The development of country risk in the last week
The week started with a strong downward trend. On Monday, December 15, the indicator stood at 623 points, starting a downward rally driven by the official announcement of the new exchange rate band system. On Tuesday 16th, the decline deepened to 561 points, while on Wednesday 17th the index showed a slight technical recovery, closing the day at 569 basis points.
Volatility continued in the final part of the week. On Thursday, December 18, country risk hit an intraday low of 556 unitsLevels not reached since July 2018, although the round ended at 568 points. Today, Friday 19th, the market finally consolidated a profit-taking session that resulted in the index closing at 572 points, still a significant improvement compared to the beginning of the month.
Sovereign risk broke 560 basis points after the BCRA announcements, reaching its lowest level in seven years
Country Risk’s current situation reflects an improvement in investor expectations due to the recent improvement in the credit rating of international agencies and the semi-sanction of the 2026 budget. The indicator’s decline below the 600-point mark suggests that the market is beginning to price in a possible return of Argentina to voluntary international credit markets in the medium term.
However, the consequences of these fluctuations depend on the sustainability of the budget surplus and the creation of reserves. While low risk makes financing cheaper for local businesses and the state, exchange rate differences and political tensions remain could serve as a ceiling for further improvements. The market continues to closely monitor the implementation of the remonetization plan and the evolution of inflation reported by INDEC.
What is country risk?
Country risk is an index that measures the probability that a country will default on its financial obligations, particularly the payment of its foreign debts. Calculated by the bank JP Morgan using the EMBI+ index, it quantifies the excess interest that a country has to pay on US government bonds, considered the safest and most risk-free financial asset in the world.
For the Argentine economy, this indicator is fundamental because it determines the cost of debt. High country risk makes credit more expensive for the public and private sectors, making investment and economic growth more difficult. On the contrary, its decline improves financing conditions, attracts foreign capital and acts as a gauge of global confidence in the country’s macroeconomic policies and institutional stability.
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