The summit Mercosur in Foz do Iguaçu comes at a time of great uncertainty. After another postponement of the European UnionThe bloc faces the need to redefine its strategy: maintain cohesion amid tensions between partners, explore new alliances and present itself in an increasingly fragmented global body.
Next Saturday, December 20th, the Mercosur Heads of State and Government Summit will host, Lula da Silvawill cede the pro tempore presidency to Paraguay without being able to crown its mandate with the signing of the agreement with the European Union – which has been under negotiation for 26 years – and South American leaders are calling for people to look beyond Europe. In the middle of the protectionist fashion (supported by the advertisements of Liberation Day of the American President Donald Trump), the tensions reached across the Atlantic: the delays, the European protective measures last week and the internal interests of each country showed that integration is not only an economic question, but also a political and diplomatic one.
“We have agreed to slightly postpone the signing. This agreement is crucial for Europe, economically, diplomatically and geopolitically,” said the President of the European Commission. Ursula von der Leyenwhich puts an end to the expectations of his trip to South America. However, she is confident that the signing of the agreement can be completed in January. “After 26 years of negotiations, it is bearable to wait another three weeks,” he joked.
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However, the European delay shows that Brussels’ goodwill is not enough: the agreement depends on the 27 member states finding an internal consensus, which is difficult to achieve. The agreement between the two largest regional blocs, relaunched in December 2024 and approved by the European Commission in September 2025, has been postponed again without a concrete definition. “The Mercosur-EU agreement is “one of the most ambitious contracts ever negotiated,” said French media Le Figaro in its editorial.
Italy, a key player in this scenario, called for a postponement of the signing of the agreement supported by Germany and Brussels; France and Poland joined in the rejection, led by Emmanuel Macron, under pressure from agricultural lobbies and domestic political tensions. The Italian Prime Minister is aware of the importance of her signature Giorgia Meloni conditioned his voice new protective measures for Italian agriculture and industry, and according to local media, the new delay has bought time. “Meloni achieves a double result: it pleases the Italian agricultural community and secures political space at home,” Italian media said. Corriere della Sera.
Lula, who wanted to end his pro tempore presidency by signing the treaty, appeared frustrated. “If we don’t do it now, Brazil will not sign any more agreements during my presidency. It’s good to know: we’ve been waiting for this agreement for 26 years. It’s cheaper for them than for us,” he said after canceling the contract with Italian power company Enel over supply problems in São Paulo. It was the Brazilian president, in turn, who postponed the Mercosur summit at the end of December in order to give more air to the concrete possibility of a signing despite Asunción’s complaint. As he reflected on his legacy, the Labor leader had to contend with another internal front at the same time: the congressional initiative to reduce the death penalty. Jair Bolsonarosentenced to five years in prison for attempted coup.
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On the other hand, the delay reflects not only the complexity of Europe (which is debating its future between the implosion of the liberal order and Ukraine), but also the social changes within the Mercosur countries and the lack of a common strategy. “Although we are a bloc of partner and brother countries, we cannot ignore that the needs of individual contracting states do not always coincide,” said the Uruguayan Foreign Minister. Mario Lubetkinthe position of in summary Yamandu Orsi.
Meanwhile, the European delay is forcing Mercosur to explore new options. China, which accounted for less than 10% of regional trade in 1999, is now the bloc’s largest partner, while the EU has fallen to almost half its share. Meanwhile, the foreign ministers of the Union (including… Pablo Quirnoin his debut before Mercosur as chancellor) and are already looking for new doors: Canada, the United Kingdom, Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam are on the agenda. The region is beginning to calibrate a more flexible Mercosur that must balance internal cohesion, economic opportunities and geopolitical alignment in the face of an unstable international body. “He Mercosur It failed to achieve its original goal, restricting economic freedoms and depriving the region’s private sector of opportunities. “There was less and less left of the market and the community,” was one of the criticisms Javier Milei This was the most well received since he took over the presidency.
In this context, the former ambassador Diego Guelar He warned that the summit would be “a thermometer for the bloc’s common direction.” “Without showing a major achievement, the disorientation becomes even more evident. Europe promises but rarely delivers; China is growing, the United States is applying pressure. The EU’s decision is not a detail: it will determine whether South America continues to trust its traditional partner or accelerates strategic diversification,” he said.
The political scientist for his part Andres Malamud anticipated this scenario of paralysis (at least until January) in a virtual meeting sponsored by the Argentine Rabbit for International Relations (CARI) and gave a broader reading of the geopolitical scenario. “We are living a fiction: the US writes strategies, commands aircraft carriers and we believe we are creating an alternative. But Europe hesitates and Latin America sells out. The coming world is based on spheres of influence: the US returns to the Western Hemisphere and we are its sphere.” In this sense, the delay in the agreement reflects that Europe “cannot keep its word and its rules”, leaving the future of the bloc – and that of Mercosur itself – in doubt due to the absence of the European delegation in Foz do Iguazu on Saturday. “Macron is the biggest obstacle to the signature,” he said.
Meanwhile Argentina, with Javier Milei present at the summit, observed with pragmatism. Its participation in multilateral agreements, including the Paris Agreement, becomes strategically important in the face of a European bloc that does not always deliver on its promises. The summit will test Mercosur’s ability to maintain its cohesion while navigating between differing national interests and increasing external pressures, particularly competition between the United States and China, based on its recent “doctrines” for the region.
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