Trump’s “détente” gives a boost to Lukashenko’s authoritarianism in Belarus

Many of them were already smiling on the bus before they crossed the border. They had been released after years as political prisoners in Belarus and were now free. Or at least as free as an exile can be, not knowing when he will return to his land and whether he will ever be able to do so. In total there are 123 people: political activists, writers, journalists. Men and women whose crime was to question Aleksandr Lukashenko, the all-powerful boss who has ruled since 1994 and won his seventh consecutive election this year, again with a limited, exiled or imprisoned opposition.

Those recently released include Ales Bialiatski, human rights defender and 2022 Nobel Peace Prize winner who was convicted of alleged tax evasion; former presidential candidate Viktor Babaryka; First, Maria Kolesnikova, Babaryka’s campaign manager, and the now-exiled former candidate Svetlana Tiyanovskaya; and Maksim Znak, lawyer for Babaryka and Tijanovskaya. They, like the vast majority of remaining freedmen, were arrested shortly before or shortly after the 2020 elections.

That was the year when repression in Belarus increased exponentially, as protests against electoral fraud were silenced and there were more than 30,000 arrests, at least eight murders and more than a thousand cases of torture in detention centers. Since then, the European Union and the United States, among others, have not recognized Lukashenko as the legitimate president and the Belarusian has been forced to rely more than ever on his main ally. Two years later, when Russian Vladimir Putin asked him for support in his invasion of Ukraine, Lukashenko returned the favor. Of course, this cost him sanctions and greater international isolation, which today is beginning to break thanks to Donald Trump.

It was precisely an envoy of the US president who negotiated the release of political prisoners in return for the lifting of sanctions against certain Belarusian export products. Furthermore, the diplomatic détente promoted by Washington implies a de facto recognition of Lukashenko’s authority, a decision that contradicts the isolation policy promoted by the European Union.

However, this rapprochement does not mean that the general situation in Belarus will change. According to the Viasna human rights center founded by Bialiatski, there are still more than 1,100 political prisoners in the country. In Lukashenko’s country, baseless complaints and arbitrary judgments against anyone who questions the leader are increasing. And the leader is particularly vicious towards cultural actors, those who promote the local identity he seems to denigrate so much. There are currently 31 writers in prison and more than 250 books have been banned and classified as “extremist materials” since 2020 alone.

Imprisoned writers and censorship as a weapon. In 1989, shortly before the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the independence of Belarus, the local branch of PEN International was founded, a global association founded in London in 1921 to promote friendship and intellectual collaboration between writers from around the world. PEN is short for Poets, Essayists, Novelists, although the organization includes all types of literary professionals. Already during times of transition, democratic recovery and independence, PEN Belarus promoted the defense of human rights, freedom of expression and the preservation of a local identity that re-emerged after the long night of Soviet oppression.

Then came Lukashenko. He assumed the presidency in 1994, regained the flag and coat of arms of the Soviet Socialist Republic, and established himself as a figure of unquestionable power through censorship and increasing repression. Almost with contempt for his own country and history, he restricted the use of the Belarusian language and persecuted those who used it, including writers.

Bialiatski is one of the members of PEN. His trial in 2023 was described as a “farce” by Amnesty International and “unfair” and “arbitrary” by Human Rights Watch. The writer and political activist was imprisoned for two years without conviction.

Although the Nobel Peace Prize winner was released, dozens of PEN members remain imprisoned. The list is extensive and the accusations are repeated: organizing riots, promoting extremism or terrorism, conspiring to seize power, fomenting social discord, tax evasion and similar accusations that ultimately do not matter. They do not matter because negotiations usually take place behind closed doors and the burden of proof is reversed. Or rather, the burden of proof is not even reversed because everyone is guilty regardless of whether the contrary is proven or not. And they don’t matter, because in the end the accusation is always the same: questioning a president who has been in power for more than thirty years due to increasing repression.

Dictators like Lukashenko fear anything that questions their unique narrative, their exclusive political ideas, their exclusive identity. Literature and all other branches of art enable us to open ourselves to new perspectives, to reflect, to feel, to learn, to discover, to deal with the static and predictable, to mobilize emotions, to enable actions. This is perhaps why dictators are so bothered by uncensored art. That’s why they have to see artists in cages.

Of course, it is a reason to celebrate that 123 political prisoners have been released. But this victory should not make us forget that they all had to leave the country: 113, including Kolesnikova, were sent to Ukraine; 10, including Bialiatski, to Lithuania. No one who is forced to leave their country because of political persecution is truly free, even if they are not behind bars.

And it should not be forgotten that there are hundreds of political prisoners in Belarus who the leader uses as instruments of pressure and blackmail. Nor that there is a president on the other side of the Atlantic who seems willing to make many, perhaps too many, concessions.

*Journalist, master’s degree in international relations and associate researcher at Cadal.