Don’t bake cookies, make pyramids… said Guimarães Rosa to the young Fernando Sabino in 1950. The famous writer’s message to the young native of Minas Gerais was the following: write powerful works, not just short stories and chronicles. Fernando accepted it and did not accept it at the same time: he became a great chronicler and wrote remarkable novels. I use this little story as a light hook: I always remember it when I think of the pyramids. And the idea of this penultimate column of 2025 is to talk about the pyramid of Brazilian football.
How is our pyramid? The illustration on the side has little arrows to show who went up, who went down, who got better, who got worse in 2025. It’s essentially a photograph that allows us to invoke the haruspexes that serve this space to predict 2026. That’s the scenario…today. What will it be like in a year?
You don’t have to be a soothsayer to say that Flamengo and Palmeiras will continue to fight for everything next year. But 2025 sees the arrival of a challenger. Cruzeiro, powered by Pedrodólares, was the third force in this year’s Brasileirão and raised expectations for next year. It’s up to Tite to save his lost confidence to continue the excellent work of Leonardo Jardim.
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As the always wise Filipe Luís said in Qatar: a big budget does not guarantee a title, but it allows you to compete for everything. Without money… you can even last a year (see Fortaleza, Mirassol) — but to go beyond… you need financial consistency. Bahia de Rogério Ceni, with its growth driven by Grupo City, is therefore a candidate for an increase in parameters in 2026.
Fluminense, who remain competitive by operating on the margins, will have to work hard to stay at these heights. Botafogo is the biggest question mark: it has slipped up in 2025, it has already lost another coach and no one knows if John Textor’s model of audacity and joy will survive. The stranger continues to speak roughly, but noisy clouds loom on the horizon.
Vasco and Corinthians were promoted to the fourth tier for Copa do Brasil reasons – and will decide who wins the title and place at the Libertadores tomorrow. But this title already sounds better than expected. Alongside them, Mirassol will have the challenge of maintaining its Lean model and competing with continental competition. Note the lesson of Fortaleza — which celebrated the same place at the end of 2024 as a title… and ended the year in relegation.
Grêmio and Bragantino have progressed slightly in the Brazilian championship. Galo and the SPFC ended the year badly, the first being South American vice-champion, the second only managing to place in the same competition. Nothing like Inter’s year – which promised much… and ended the year thanking heaven they escaped decapitation in the Colorado pool of souls.
Avoiding relegation has this: it can be an incredible achievement (as in the case of Vitória de Jair Adventure) or an excellent dessert (as in the case of Santos de Neymar). By the way, where is the ex-Menino Ney going? Will it stay? Is that…isn’t it? It’s time for football club speculation!
The pyramid is a graphic game to illustrate the year and try to project the future. Next week… the mainstream predictions absolutely wrong for 2026 — or your money back.
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