The association’s analysis also highlights the new BC and CMN methodology to determine the minimum capital limit for financial institutions as a measure that will affect the segment.
Still strongly affected by the base interest rate at 15% per year and, consequently, by a difficult economic environment, the credit market should also be impacted, in 2026, by a series of regulatory measures and advances linked to digital securitization and accounting duplication. The findings come from the Brazilian Digital Credit Association (ABCD), representative of credit fintechs.
According to the entity, the expectation of a reduction in interest rates tends to continue to guide the segment, as it affects both consumers and institutions that offer credit. “At the same time as it penalizes borrowers, as resources become more expensive, the increase in Selic also prevents the market from offering more competitive rates. Consequently, the possible reduction could have a very positive impact next year,” analyzes Daniel Gomes, vice-president of ABCD.
According to the latest editions of the Focus Bulletin, which summarizes statistics calculated taking into account market expectations, economists are betting that next year will end with an interest rate of 12% and that in 2027 the index will reach 10.5%.
Gomes also considers that the new minimum capital methodology for financial institutions, published by the Central Bank and the National Monetary Council (CMN) in early November, could “result in a very significant movement, especially among fintechs. It is possible that some companies sell their licenses at the same time as others consolidate their position on the market,” says the executive.
Among the main initiatives that could impact the digital credit sector in 2026, ABCD highlights:
1) Banking as a Service (BaaS) Regulation: announced by the Central Bank and the CMN on November 28, the measure regulates the provision of services in terms that allow companies from other segments to offer financial products and services through the infrastructure of institutions authorized to operate by the monetary authority. To mitigate possible risks for customers, the rules define the parties involved in the BaaS business model and their responsibilities, including issues such as corporate governance, security requirements and risk management. By improving transparency and legal certainty, regulation tends to strengthen the use of BaaS and increase competition.
2) CVM 88 resolution update: in public consultation until December 23 this year, the proposed reform of the rule, which deals with public offerings for the distribution of securities issued by small companies, carried out without registration through investment crowdfunding, is expected to bring progress by opening space for asset tokenization and digital securitization. Scope expansion, combined with modernization, is expected to impact not only fintechs, but also traditional financial institutions and FIDCs, in the wake of advances in debt digitalization.
3) Selic reduction: at its highest level in almost 20 years, the base interest rate of 15% per year will remain one of the recurring themes in the credit sector. Even though expectations of a drop in the index are high, the trend is that this movement does not begin until the first half of 2026. According to the Focus Bulletin, the bet is that next year will end with an interest rate of 12%.
4) New requirements for financial institutions: published at the beginning of November, the new methodology for determining the minimum ceiling of paid-up share capital and net equity of financial institutions (FI) and other institutions authorized to operate by the Central Bank should encourage intense movement on the market, particularly with regard to direct credit companies (SCD) and personal loan companies (SEP). In this context, it is possible that the fintech segment will be the most affected, with some players selling their licenses at the same time as others are consolidating in the market.
5) Progress of the written duplicate: scheduled to come into force in 2026, the dematerialized double tends to represent an important development for credit flows backed by receivables, with financing agents. At the end of the implementation of the model, all commercial invoices will pass through the accounting and recording environment, which will be responsible for guaranteeing the uniqueness of the receivable, in addition to the transparency of information regarding ownership, settlement and possible negotiation effects. The trend is towards double account registrations to boost the credit market, mainly benefiting small and medium-sized businesses, because they will provide greater legal certainty and lower risks for the issuance of these securities by legal entities.
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