Last week, the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec) published that consumer prices rose 2.5% in November 2025 compared to October and 31.4% year-on-year. This means they recorded an increase of 27.9% in 11 months. There has been no disinflation since last MayOn the contrary: after two months of stagnation of almost 2% per month, the price increase accelerated again in the last quarter at a rate of 0.2 percentage points per month, even with the weighting problems that the index presents due to the lack of updating (the increase would be greater if these measurement biases were corrected).
This process has already had an impact on national measurement expectations: as the Consultora Delfos evolution series shows, From August onwards, pessimism about reducing inflation exceeded optimismwhich last November was at its lowest level in the last 7 months. This means that since August, respondents have assumed that there will be an increase rather than a decrease. This “soft” data from the survey matches the “hard” data from Indec, which put inflation this month at the highest since last April.
42 years after the return of democracy, the demand for consensus predominates in nationwide surveys
In November of the same month, the Atlas Intel-Bloomberg survey found that perceived inflation reached 28.1% in the last six months, compared to a “real” increase of almost 28% in 11 months. The “mismatch” is explained by the fact that inflation expectations for the next 6 months have been around 9% since last September, which means that no slowdown in price growth is expected either. This contradicts the state government’s budget forecasts, which only predict inflation of 10.1% for the entire year 2026.
In the same vein, the latest nationwide survey by Equipo Mide finds that only 27% of Argentine voters expect lower inflation than currently in the coming months, while 37% expect higher inflation. This results in an unfavorable gap (more pessimism than optimism) of 10 percentage points. On the other hand, another 27% expect inflation to be the same as now, confirming a perspective that fluctuates between pessimism and stagnation rather than the expectation of disinflation.
In this context, high prices and inflation are again among the main concerns in several of the latest national measurements: according to Atlas Intel-Bloomberg, they rose from 31% to 35% between October and November, consolidating in the top 3.
On the same line, According to the latest D’Alessio/IROL survey, inflation has risen by 9 percentage points and is one of the biggest concerns, from 37% in October to 46% in November. As confirmed in the Atlas Intel-Bloomberg report, the issue is confirmed in the top 3 major concerns. In this context, the national government announced this week a change in exchange rate policy whereby the dollar’s floating exchange rates will no longer be adjusted at 1% per month (which resulted in a real appreciation of the peso) and will move in the same way as the last price increase, adding an element of inflationary inertia and potential indexation right in the middle of a two-month price increase period (a similar inflation for this month would be in addition to the 2.5% recorded last November). Advisers such as Eco Go pointed out that while the announcement was positive in that it would allow the central bank to buy dollars and accumulate reserves, at the same time “in hindsight (that is, adjusting for past inflation), it is likely that disinflation will be slower than originally intended and interest rates will be higher.” Given that, strictly speaking, there has not been disinflation for a semester, the challenge posed by this change is not small.
*Public opinion and market analyst
@berranorman
About The Author
