In the fourth year of his third term, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will have central objectives in his foreign policy agenda, among them – and above all – continuing efforts to ease relations with Donald Trump’s United States. This will be, according to the experts interviewed by GLOBO, one of the most difficult subjects for Lula, who, at the same time, must, according to official sources, “forcefully defend that Latin America continues to be a zone of peace”.
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After overcoming the bilateral crisis triggered by the application of Trump’s tariffs on Brazil, “there are still tariff obligations that will occupy us”, explained one of the official sources consulted. Without anticipation of a new meeting between Lula and Trump, the Brazilian government, already in the middle of the electoral campaign to attempt a new re-election, will have to seek a balance that avoids new upheavals in the relationship with the White House.
Issues such as Lula’s questions about the US military presence in the region, Brazil’s increasingly deep relations with China and the country’s active participation in the Brics can, at any time, negatively contaminate relations with Washington.
— For Brazil, the vision of a multipolar world is extremely important, this must be our objective in terms of diplomacy. I am thinking not only of China, but also of India, African countries, Latin America and Europe — underlines José Pio Borges, president of the board of directors of the Brazilian Center for International Relations (Cebri).
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Lula will make an official visit in February to South Korea and India, which will chair BRICS in 2026, and could make a second trip to the country to participate in the group’s leaders’ summit, which is not yet scheduled.
— Asia already represents 50% of Brazil’s total trade, and this new reality will expand. The attention given by the government to the Bric countries and Asian countries in general is correct – emphasizes Borges.
Displaying an autonomous foreign policy, which respects the elementary principles of the Brazilian diplomatic tradition, notably the defense of multilateralism and Latin America as a zone of peace, could generate clashes with Trump. Unpredictability will be permanent, admits Flávia Campos Mello, professor at the National Institute of Science and Technology for United States Studies (INCT-Ineu), in a world where foreign policy and domestic policy are increasingly linked.
— Topics such as Brics permeate political campaigns. It is necessary to evaluate the implications of each issue on the international agenda in terms of impact on ideological bases and clashes — says Campos Mello, recalling that Trump’s actions in Latin America are essentially aimed at “responding to the demands of Florida voters.”
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In a disintegrated Latin America and where right-wing options are gaining ground in countries like Argentina, Ecuador, Paraguay and Chile, there is no room to think about regional integration projects. This was one of Lula’s goals for his third term, but the regional situation prevented its achievement – as well as other failures, such as the restoration of democracy in Venezuela.
Trump’s return to power ended up burying any possibility of regional articulation, with more and more countries aligned with the White House. In this context, Brazil is expected to adopt cautious positions on regional issues and focus more on its bilateral agenda with the United States. But Brazil will not give up defending peace, a position that became clear during Lula’s recent phone call to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Faced with the threat of an American attack on Venezuelan territory, Lula decided to enter the field.
— Maintaining South America as a zone of peace is both the priority and the biggest challenge for Brazilian foreign policy in 2026 — assures Pedro Silva Barros, researcher at the Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea), who highlights the importance of “avoiding deep and automatic alignments of neighbors with the external poles and deterring interference.” — The worst case scenario would be that some neighbors submit to the United States and others to China, making our environment a theater of extra-regional conflicts. Brazil’s priority must be to avoid this situation.
- Unfavorable scenario: Maduro is losing allies with the political reversal in Latin America and the increasingly strong US siege.
The year 2026 will not be the time to open new fronts in foreign policy, but rather to consolidate what has been done by Brazil in the last three years, such as the G20, Brics and COP30 summits, believes Haroldo Ramanzini Junior, professor at the Institute of International Relations at the University of Brasilia (UnB). Betting on strengthening initiatives such as the Global Alliance Against Hunger, the Tropical Forest Fund (TFFF), the negotiations to gain more support for the fossil fuel elimination map, among other crusades launched by Brazil, would be a way of seeking positive agendas in an increasingly hostile world.
— The initiative to defend democracy and combat extremism that Brazil launched with Spain is another positive front, says Ramanzini Junior.
In relations with the United States, says the professor, “it is necessary to maintain a negotiating agenda.”
All scenarios, experts agree, could be altered in the event of U.S. military action in Venezuela – or any other country in the region. In the event of an attack, possible mediation by Brazil would be on the agenda and could become the biggest foreign policy challenge in 2026.
The biggest concern is Venezuela, but also countries like Colombia and Mexico, where drug trafficking has had significant operational bases for decades. At a time when there is no strong regional governance, Trump’s unprecedented harassment of Latin America could bring surprises and force Brazil to act more firmly, risking negative consequences for the bilateral relationship.
China, an important trading ally of the vast majority of countries in the region, recently released its foreign policy document on Latin America and the Caribbean. This is the third document this century on the subject, the previous one having been published nine years ago. Beijing rejects the idea that Latin America is seen as the United States’ backyard and treats the region as part of the Global South, aiming to present itself as a long-term partner, not just interested in natural resources.
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In a possible war scenario, China would likely side with countries that reject a hypothetical U.S. military attack on a Latin American country. The tension could reach complex levels, requiring redoubled efforts from Brazilian foreign policy, against a backdrop of pressure and threats from major powers. Instability and uncertainty are on the horizon.
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