In Spain, electricity so far in December has recorded an average price of 78.56 euros per megawatt hour (MWh)during a month traditionally characterized by higher consumption due to low temperatures and intensive use of heating.
Although still somewhat far from prices before the energy crisis, this cost represents 30% less than the same period last yearwhile the average reaches 113.24 euros/MWh.
The forecast for January 2026 is optimistic. According to the consultancy firm Tempos Energía, the electricity bill electricity could return to levels close to those before the 2020 crisisranking since then as the second cheapest.
If temperatures remain mild, liquefied natural gas maintains a stable flow rate and Asia remains in a state of confinement, European gas (the TTF reference) will remain in the low range of 24-25 euros/MWh. This would allow the electricity bill for the first quarter of 2026 to stabilize between 50 and 55 euros/MWhthus pushing forward spring prices, according to the consulting firm.
In Europe, TTF gas prices fell below 28 euros/MWh in December, levels not seen since April 2024.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the price of European gas will be around 29 euros/MWh in 2026 and will decrease to 20 euros/MWh in 2027. This drop is due to a strong growth in global gas production and liquefaction capacitywith many factories in progress, particularly in North America and Canada.
Global capacity could even double in the coming years, which would put downward pressure on prices if demand does not grow at the same rate.
Currently, the gas market presents an unusual situation, with three consecutive months below 35 euros/MWh. For Tempos Energía, the message is clear: “prices are low because the system is comfortable and the market remains stationary as long as the weather is good”.
Of course, Antonio Aceituno, energy market analyst, warns that this calm can be broken “as soon as the thermometer turns, since time is the only element that causes prices to vary.”
According to the firm, only prolonged cold, accompanied by less wind and pressure on renewable energies, could suddenly change the market.
Gasoline prices
The arrival of exit operation Christmas brings good news to drivers. The price of 95 gasoline has fallen for five consecutive weeks and that of A diesel has fallen for four weeks..
Gasoline currently has an average price in Spain of 1.45 euros/liter (1.46 euros/liter in the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands), or four cents less than a year ago, according to data from the Ministry of Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge. With these prices, filling an average tank (55 liters) would cost the consumer 79.64 euros.
While diesel currently costs 1.40 euros/liter (1.41 euros/liter in the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands), four cents more than barely a year ago. We’re talking about the fact that these levels would involve a payout of 76.95 euros to fill an average tank of diesel.
However, the two fuels remain far from the maximum prices recorded in the summer of 2022, in the midst of the energy crisis. In July, gasoline and diesel exceeded the average price by 2.10 euros.
The price of fuel is determined by several factors: the price of each fuel, the evolution of oil, applicable taxes, production and transportation costs, as well as commercial margins.
The price of Brent oil, the benchmark in Europe, drop 22% so far this year due to oversupplywhich generates a sharp increase in stocks, and the influence of geopolitics. It stands at around $59.60/barrel.
Last month it became cheaper by more than 4% and last week by almost 2%. However, changes in the price of crude oil are not immediately reflected at the pump; There is a time lag between the variation in oil and its transfer to final fuel prices.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates in its latest forecasts a price of a barrel of Brent which would be around 55 dollars per unit for the next year 2026.
The entity highlights that the increase in global supply, combined with weaker demand during the winter, will favor a rapid accumulation of inventories and put downward pressure on prices in the coming quarters.
The IEA warns, however, that this decline will be partly limited by the OPEC+ policy and continued accumulation of reserves in Chinaelements that will stop a more pronounced correction in crude oil.
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