The trade balance was hit this year by government-sponsored trade openness, which triggered an import boom. Between January and November, foreign exchange surpluses recorded a surplus of $9,343 million. It achieved only 55% of what was achieved in the same period last year, when it was $17,246 million.
The lower positive balance was largely due to Vaca Muerta. The energy balance showed a surplus of $6,911 million between January and November. That is, it accounted for 73% of the surplus of the country’s total trade exchange.
Abeceb estimated the year would end with a total of $11.4 billion in grants. “The trade balance could ease towards the end of the year, in a scenario where the impact of extraordinary measures fades and exports grow faster than imports,” said the report from the consultancy led by Dante Sica.
If realized, this figure would represent $7,528 million less than last year ($18,928 million), showing the impact of the import boom in 2025. Foreign purchases totaled $70,235 million through November, up 26.7% compared to $55,408 million in the same period last year.
Exports, in turn, totaled $79,592 million in the eleven months of the year. They increased by only 9.5% compared to 2024, when they amounted to $72,654 million.
Within imports, the consumer goods category reached a historic record of $8,376 million in the first nine months, exceeding by 25.3% the previous peak during the Macri administration in 2018, according to calculations by the Center for Argentine Political Economy (CEPA). This led to an increase in new players in the industry: compared to 2023, there are 9,325 new companies importing finished goods, representing a 70% increase in the number of customs participants.
The most striking examples are for household appliances, where imports soared by 217.7% while local production fell by 25.7%, and for the textile sector, where the inflow of foreign clothing increased by 61.8% while domestic production fell by 18.9%.
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